The closely matched market odds between 25°C (38%) and 26°C (46%) reflect substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on August 9, driven by variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing over the next 48 hours. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency highlights a weak Pacific high-pressure ridge allowing modest onshore flow, which could enhance nighttime radiative cooling under clearer skies or limit it with increased humidity and light winds. Historical August minima average near 25–26°C, but urban heat-island effects and subtle shifts in the 850-hPa temperature field or precipitation timing can swing the overnight low by 1–2°C. Traders appear to weigh the latest model runs showing limited diurnal temperature range against potential for slightly cooler advection if marine air strengthens.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 9?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 9?
25°C 43%
24°C 11%
27°C 9%
23°C 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 9, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
7%
24°C
11%
25°C
43%
26°C
58%
27°C
9%
28°C
7%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
25°C 43%
24°C 11%
27°C 9%
23°C 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 9, 2026
21°C or below
$34 Обс.
1%
22°C
$34 Обс.
2%
23°C
$0 Обс.
7%
24°C
$0 Обс.
11%
25°C
$0 Обс.
43%
26°C
$5 Обс.
58%
27°C
$0 Обс.
9%
28°C
$0 Обс.
7%
29°C
$34 Обс.
1%
30°C
$10 Обс.
1%
31°C or higher
$10 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market odds between 25°C (38%) and 26°C (46%) reflect substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on August 9, driven by variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing over the next 48 hours. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency highlights a weak Pacific high-pressure ridge allowing modest onshore flow, which could enhance nighttime radiative cooling under clearer skies or limit it with increased humidity and light winds. Historical August minima average near 25–26°C, but urban heat-island effects and subtle shifts in the 850-hPa temperature field or precipitation timing can swing the overnight low by 1–2°C. Traders appear to weigh the latest model runs showing limited diurnal temperature range against potential for slightly cooler advection if marine air strengthens.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$126Дата завершення
Aug 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market odds between 25°C (38%) and 26°C (46%) reflect substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on August 9, driven by variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing over the next 48 hours. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency highlights a weak Pacific high-pressure ridge allowing modest onshore flow, which could enhance nighttime radiative cooling under clearer skies or limit it with increased humidity and light winds. Historical August minima average near 25–26°C, but urban heat-island effects and subtle shifts in the 850-hPa temperature field or precipitation timing can swing the overnight low by 1–2°C. Traders appear to weigh the latest model runs showing limited diurnal temperature range against potential for slightly cooler advection if marine air strengthens.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$126Дата завершення
Aug 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market odds between 25°C (38%) and 26°C (46%) reflect substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on August 9, driven by variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing over the next 48 hours. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency highlights a weak Pacific high-pressure ridge allowing modest onshore flow, which could enhance nighttime radiative cooling under clearer skies or limit it with increased humidity and light winds. Historical August minima average near 25–26°C, but urban heat-island effects and subtle shifts in the 850-hPa temperature field or precipitation timing can swing the overnight low by 1–2°C. Traders appear to weigh the latest model runs showing limited diurnal temperature range against potential for slightly cooler advection if marine air strengthens.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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