Long-serving Republican incumbent Mike Simpson, facing primary challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP hold in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican (R+13 PVI) by Cook Political Report. The February filing deadline revealed Democratic primary contenders Elinor Gilbreath and Julie Wiley, but the district's deep-red history—where Simpson has won comfortably since 1999—signals minimal general election threat ahead of the May 19 primaries and November 3 ballot. Elevated odds reflect incumbency advantages and absent polling shifts; potential disruptions include a primary upset exposing GOP divisions, Simpson retirement, nominee scandal, or extraordinary Democratic turnout in this midterm cycle.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоID-02 House Election Winner
ID-02 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$0 Обс.
92%
Democratic Party
$0 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Republican incumbent Mike Simpson, facing primary challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP hold in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican (R+13 PVI) by Cook Political Report. The February filing deadline revealed Democratic primary contenders Elinor Gilbreath and Julie Wiley, but the district's deep-red history—where Simpson has won comfortably since 1999—signals minimal general election threat ahead of the May 19 primaries and November 3 ballot. Elevated odds reflect incumbency advantages and absent polling shifts; potential disruptions include a primary upset exposing GOP divisions, Simpson retirement, nominee scandal, or extraordinary Democratic turnout in this midterm cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Republican incumbent Mike Simpson, facing primary challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP hold in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican (R+13 PVI) by Cook Political Report. The February filing deadline revealed Democratic primary contenders Elinor Gilbreath and Julie Wiley, but the district's deep-red history—where Simpson has won comfortably since 1999—signals minimal general election threat ahead of the May 19 primaries and November 3 ballot. Elevated odds reflect incumbency advantages and absent polling shifts; potential disruptions include a primary upset exposing GOP divisions, Simpson retirement, nominee scandal, or extraordinary Democratic turnout in this midterm cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Long-serving Republican incumbent Mike Simpson, facing primary challengers Brian Keene and Perry Shumway, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% for a GOP hold in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican (R+13 PVI) by Cook Political Report. The February filing deadline revealed Democratic primary contenders Elinor Gilbreath and Julie Wiley, but the district's deep-red history—where Simpson has won comfortably since 1999—signals minimal general election threat ahead of the May 19 primaries and November 3 ballot. Elevated odds reflect incumbency advantages and absent polling shifts; potential disruptions include a primary upset exposing GOP divisions, Simpson retirement, nominee scandal, or extraordinary Democratic turnout in this midterm cycle.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання