**Current forecasts from multiple models indicate overnight lows in Amsterdam on September 12, 2026, will likely settle in the 14–18°C range, supporting the strong market-implied probability around 12°C.** Mild southwesterly flow, high humidity near 80–100%, and persistent cloud cover with scattered rain or drizzle are limiting radiative cooling, preventing sharper drops typical under clear skies. This aligns with recent observations, including a September 11 low near 14°C and the 1991–2020 average minimum of 11.1°C for the date. Ensemble guidance shows limited model spread, with no significant cold advection or clear-sky window expected to push readings toward single digits. Traders appear to weigh these stable conditions against historical variability, where lows have occasionally reached 6–8°C in cooler years, keeping probabilities for sub-10°C outcomes elevated but secondary to the consensus near the seasonal norm. Updated model runs and official observations through the evening will refine resolution thresholds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 12?
7°C or below 100%
9°C 79%
8°C 75%
11°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 12, 2026
7°C or below
100%
8°C
75%
9°C
79%
10°C
-
11°C
9%
12°C
69%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
7°C or below 100%
9°C 79%
8°C 75%
11°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 12, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Обс.
100%
8°C
$0 Обс.
75%
9°C
$0 Обс.
79%
10°C
$30 Обс.
-
11°C
$66 Обс.
9%
12°C
$207 Обс.
69%
13°C
$261 Обс.
<1%
14°C
$148 Обс.
<1%
15°C
$95 Обс.
<1%
16°C
$56 Обс.
<1%
17°C or higher
$76 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models indicate overnight lows in Amsterdam on September 12, 2026, will likely settle in the 14–18°C range, supporting the strong market-implied probability around 12°C.** Mild southwesterly flow, high humidity near 80–100%, and persistent cloud cover with scattered rain or drizzle are limiting radiative cooling, preventing sharper drops typical under clear skies. This aligns with recent observations, including a September 11 low near 14°C and the 1991–2020 average minimum of 11.1°C for the date. Ensemble guidance shows limited model spread, with no significant cold advection or clear-sky window expected to push readings toward single digits. Traders appear to weigh these stable conditions against historical variability, where lows have occasionally reached 6–8°C in cooler years, keeping probabilities for sub-10°C outcomes elevated but secondary to the consensus near the seasonal norm. Updated model runs and official observations through the evening will refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Обсяг
$939Дата завершення
Sep 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models indicate overnight lows in Amsterdam on September 12, 2026, will likely settle in the 14–18°C range, supporting the strong market-implied probability around 12°C.** Mild southwesterly flow, high humidity near 80–100%, and persistent cloud cover with scattered rain or drizzle are limiting radiative cooling, preventing sharper drops typical under clear skies. This aligns with recent observations, including a September 11 low near 14°C and the 1991–2020 average minimum of 11.1°C for the date. Ensemble guidance shows limited model spread, with no significant cold advection or clear-sky window expected to push readings toward single digits. Traders appear to weigh these stable conditions against historical variability, where lows have occasionally reached 6–8°C in cooler years, keeping probabilities for sub-10°C outcomes elevated but secondary to the consensus near the seasonal norm. Updated model runs and official observations through the evening will refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$939Дата завершення
Sep 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from multiple models indicate overnight lows in Amsterdam on September 12, 2026, will likely settle in the 14–18°C range, supporting the strong market-implied probability around 12°C.** Mild southwesterly flow, high humidity near 80–100%, and persistent cloud cover with scattered rain or drizzle are limiting radiative cooling, preventing sharper drops typical under clear skies. This aligns with recent observations, including a September 11 low near 14°C and the 1991–2020 average minimum of 11.1°C for the date. Ensemble guidance shows limited model spread, with no significant cold advection or clear-sky window expected to push readings toward single digits. Traders appear to weigh these stable conditions against historical variability, where lows have occasionally reached 6–8°C in cooler years, keeping probabilities for sub-10°C outcomes elevated but secondary to the consensus near the seasonal norm. Updated model runs and official observations through the evening will refine resolution thresholds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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