Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a minimum temperature of 24°C for Tokyo on August 21 under cloudy skies with scattered showers and light winds, consistent with typical late-summer conditions where high humidity and cloud cover limit nocturnal radiative cooling. The urban heat island effect from Tokyo's dense infrastructure further supports overnight lows near or slightly above seasonal averages of 23–25°C. Trader consensus favoring 25–26°C as leading outcomes likely reflects model uncertainty in short-range guidance, potential localized variations across observation sites, and the influence of persistent Pacific high pressure maintaining warmer baseline temperatures. Updated JMA briefings and refined ensemble runs in the next 12–24 hours represent the key near-term data that could shift these implied probabilities.