**Trader consensus strongly favors 19°C as Tokyo’s lowest temperature on September 11, 2026, with 99% implied probability.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model runs project a nighttime minimum near 19°C under persistent cloud cover, light northeasterly flow, and periods of rain that limit radiational cooling while maintaining high humidity near 90%. This aligns with the seasonal September average low of approximately 20°C and recent observations showing overnight readings stabilizing in the 19–20°C range. The outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds aggregating real-time meteorological data rather than a guarantee. A sudden late-evening clearing or stronger northerly advection could nudge the minimum slightly lower, while delayed rain or warmer boundary-layer air might keep it at or above 20°C; resolution depends on the official Tokyo station reading.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 11?
19°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$7,813 Обс.
$7,813 Обс.
Sep 11, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
Yes
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
19°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$7,813 Обс.
$7,813 Обс.
Sep 11, 2026
14°C or below
$86 Обс.
No
15°C
$107 Обс.
No
16°C
$467 Обс.
No
17°C
$501 Обс.
No
18°C
$2,510 Обс.
No
19°C
$1,282 Обс.
Yes
20°C
$2,379 Обс.
No
21°C
$127 Обс.
No
22°C
$72 Обс.
No
23°C
$191 Обс.
No
24°C or higher
$91 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 19°C as Tokyo’s lowest temperature on September 11, 2026, with 99% implied probability.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model runs project a nighttime minimum near 19°C under persistent cloud cover, light northeasterly flow, and periods of rain that limit radiational cooling while maintaining high humidity near 90%. This aligns with the seasonal September average low of approximately 20°C and recent observations showing overnight readings stabilizing in the 19–20°C range. The outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds aggregating real-time meteorological data rather than a guarantee. A sudden late-evening clearing or stronger northerly advection could nudge the minimum slightly lower, while delayed rain or warmer boundary-layer air might keep it at or above 20°C; resolution depends on the official Tokyo station reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$7,813Дата завершення
Sep 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 19°C as Tokyo’s lowest temperature on September 11, 2026, with 99% implied probability.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model runs project a nighttime minimum near 19°C under persistent cloud cover, light northeasterly flow, and periods of rain that limit radiational cooling while maintaining high humidity near 90%. This aligns with the seasonal September average low of approximately 20°C and recent observations showing overnight readings stabilizing in the 19–20°C range. The outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds aggregating real-time meteorological data rather than a guarantee. A sudden late-evening clearing or stronger northerly advection could nudge the minimum slightly lower, while delayed rain or warmer boundary-layer air might keep it at or above 20°C; resolution depends on the official Tokyo station reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$7,813Дата завершення
Sep 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
**Trader consensus strongly favors 19°C as Tokyo’s lowest temperature on September 11, 2026, with 99% implied probability.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model runs project a nighttime minimum near 19°C under persistent cloud cover, light northeasterly flow, and periods of rain that limit radiational cooling while maintaining high humidity near 90%. This aligns with the seasonal September average low of approximately 20°C and recent observations showing overnight readings stabilizing in the 19–20°C range. The outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds aggregating real-time meteorological data rather than a guarantee. A sudden late-evening clearing or stronger northerly advection could nudge the minimum slightly lower, while delayed rain or warmer boundary-layer air might keep it at or above 20°C; resolution depends on the official Tokyo station reading.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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