Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party swept three federal by-elections on April 13, 2026, in Scarborough Southwest, University—Rosedale, and Terrebonne, elevating its seat count from 169 to a slim parliamentary majority of 172 in the 338-seat House of Commons. This outcome, following the April 2025 general election and recent Conservative floor-crossings, has solidified government stability, eliminating immediate risks of a no-confidence vote or need for confidence-and-supply deals. With the fixed election date set for no later than October 2029, traders price "No" at 95.8% implied probability, reflecting consensus on prolonged tenure absent major scandals, leadership upheavals, or unforeseen parliamentary defeats that could trigger a snap election by June 30.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$78,392 KL.
$78,392 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
$78,392 KL.
$78,392 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party swept three federal by-elections on April 13, 2026, in Scarborough Southwest, University—Rosedale, and Terrebonne, elevating its seat count from 169 to a slim parliamentary majority of 172 in the 338-seat House of Commons. This outcome, following the April 2025 general election and recent Conservative floor-crossings, has solidified government stability, eliminating immediate risks of a no-confidence vote or need for confidence-and-supply deals. With the fixed election date set for no later than October 2029, traders price "No" at 95.8% implied probability, reflecting consensus on prolonged tenure absent major scandals, leadership upheavals, or unforeseen parliamentary defeats that could trigger a snap election by June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ET
Khối lượng
$78,392Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party swept three federal by-elections on April 13, 2026, in Scarborough Southwest, University—Rosedale, and Terrebonne, elevating its seat count from 169 to a slim parliamentary majority of 172 in the 338-seat House of Commons. This outcome, following the April 2025 general election and recent Conservative floor-crossings, has solidified government stability, eliminating immediate risks of a no-confidence vote or need for confidence-and-supply deals. With the fixed election date set for no later than October 2029, traders price "No" at 95.8% implied probability, reflecting consensus on prolonged tenure absent major scandals, leadership upheavals, or unforeseen parliamentary defeats that could trigger a snap election by June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$78,392Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party swept three federal by-elections on April 13, 2026, in Scarborough Southwest, University—Rosedale, and Terrebonne, elevating its seat count from 169 to a slim parliamentary majority of 172 in the 338-seat House of Commons. This outcome, following the April 2025 general election and recent Conservative floor-crossings, has solidified government stability, eliminating immediate risks of a no-confidence vote or need for confidence-and-supply deals. With the fixed election date set for no later than October 2029, traders price "No" at 95.8% implied probability, reflecting consensus on prolonged tenure absent major scandals, leadership upheavals, or unforeseen parliamentary defeats that could trigger a snap election by June 30.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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