Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 39% implied probability to April 2026 CPI month-over-month at 0.5%, followed by 0.4% at 27.5% and 0.6% at 13.5%, reflecting caution after March's scorching 0.9% m/m surge—driven by a 10.9% gasoline spike amid Iran tensions—that lifted annual inflation to 3.3%. Recent relief from a 22% oil collapse post-ceasefire has eased the Cleveland Fed's April 17 nowcast to 0.46% headline and 0.21% core, aligning closely with leading outcomes despite economist medians near 0.2%. Sticky services and potential airfare passthrough temper expectations for sub-0.4% prints, with resolution looming via the May 12 BLS release ahead of the late-April FOMC.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
MỚI
May 12, 2026
≤0.3%
8%
0.4%
28%
0.5%
39%
0.6%
15%
0.7%
7%
0.8%
5%
0.9%
2%
1.0%
3%
≥1.1%
3%
MỚI
MỚI
May 12, 2026
≤0.3%
$361 KL.
8%
0.4%
$885 KL.
28%
0.5%
$1,187 KL.
39%
0.6%
$566 KL.
15%
0.7%
$930 KL.
7%
0.8%
$808 KL.
5%
0.9%
$715 KL.
2%
1.0%
$1,026 KL.
3%
≥1.1%
$696 KL.
3%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 39% implied probability to April 2026 CPI month-over-month at 0.5%, followed by 0.4% at 27.5% and 0.6% at 13.5%, reflecting caution after March's scorching 0.9% m/m surge—driven by a 10.9% gasoline spike amid Iran tensions—that lifted annual inflation to 3.3%. Recent relief from a 22% oil collapse post-ceasefire has eased the Cleveland Fed's April 17 nowcast to 0.46% headline and 0.21% core, aligning closely with leading outcomes despite economist medians near 0.2%. Sticky services and potential airfare passthrough temper expectations for sub-0.4% prints, with resolution looming via the May 12 BLS release ahead of the late-April FOMC.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Thị trường mở: Apr 10, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Khối lượng
$7,173Ngày kết thúc
May 12, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 10, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 39% implied probability to April 2026 CPI month-over-month at 0.5%, followed by 0.4% at 27.5% and 0.6% at 13.5%, reflecting caution after March's scorching 0.9% m/m surge—driven by a 10.9% gasoline spike amid Iran tensions—that lifted annual inflation to 3.3%. Recent relief from a 22% oil collapse post-ceasefire has eased the Cleveland Fed's April 17 nowcast to 0.46% headline and 0.21% core, aligning closely with leading outcomes despite economist medians near 0.2%. Sticky services and potential airfare passthrough temper expectations for sub-0.4% prints, with resolution looming via the May 12 BLS release ahead of the late-April FOMC.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Khối lượng
$7,173Ngày kết thúc
May 12, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 10, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 39% implied probability to April 2026 CPI month-over-month at 0.5%, followed by 0.4% at 27.5% and 0.6% at 13.5%, reflecting caution after March's scorching 0.9% m/m surge—driven by a 10.9% gasoline spike amid Iran tensions—that lifted annual inflation to 3.3%. Recent relief from a 22% oil collapse post-ceasefire has eased the Cleveland Fed's April 17 nowcast to 0.46% headline and 0.21% core, aligning closely with leading outcomes despite economist medians near 0.2%. Sticky services and potential airfare passthrough temper expectations for sub-0.4% prints, with resolution looming via the May 12 BLS release ahead of the late-April FOMC.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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