Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges of the People’s Liberation Army, including the 2026 removal of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, have reinforced centralized party control and political loyalty across military leadership. Multiple rounds of investigations since 2023 have removed over 100 senior officers, leaving the CMC with minimal active members aligned against Xi. Persistent rumors of coups or leadership challenges, including those circulating in early 2026, have lacked confirmation from credible independent sources and appear driven by unverified overseas accounts. This pattern of elite discipline, combined with the absence of organized dissent or visible fractures ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, underpins the 96% trader-implied probability of no coup attempt through 2026. Unforeseen events such as acute health crises or sudden elite realignments remain the primary, though remote, variables that could alter outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtChina coup attempt before 2027?
China coup attempt before 2027?
4% khả năng
$155,283 KL.
$155,283 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
4% khả năng
$155,283 KL.
$155,283 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges of the People’s Liberation Army, including the 2026 removal of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, have reinforced centralized party control and political loyalty across military leadership. Multiple rounds of investigations since 2023 have removed over 100 senior officers, leaving the CMC with minimal active members aligned against Xi. Persistent rumors of coups or leadership challenges, including those circulating in early 2026, have lacked confirmation from credible independent sources and appear driven by unverified overseas accounts. This pattern of elite discipline, combined with the absence of organized dissent or visible fractures ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, underpins the 96% trader-implied probability of no coup attempt through 2026. Unforeseen events such as acute health crises or sudden elite realignments remain the primary, though remote, variables that could alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Khối lượng
$155,283Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges of the People’s Liberation Army, including the 2026 removal of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, have reinforced centralized party control and political loyalty across military leadership. Multiple rounds of investigations since 2023 have removed over 100 senior officers, leaving the CMC with minimal active members aligned against Xi. Persistent rumors of coups or leadership challenges, including those circulating in early 2026, have lacked confirmation from credible independent sources and appear driven by unverified overseas accounts. This pattern of elite discipline, combined with the absence of organized dissent or visible fractures ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, underpins the 96% trader-implied probability of no coup attempt through 2026. Unforeseen events such as acute health crises or sudden elite realignments remain the primary, though remote, variables that could alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$155,283Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges of the People’s Liberation Army, including the 2026 removal of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, have reinforced centralized party control and political loyalty across military leadership. Multiple rounds of investigations since 2023 have removed over 100 senior officers, leaving the CMC with minimal active members aligned against Xi. Persistent rumors of coups or leadership challenges, including those circulating in early 2026, have lacked confirmation from credible independent sources and appear driven by unverified overseas accounts. This pattern of elite discipline, combined with the absence of organized dissent or visible fractures ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, underpins the 96% trader-implied probability of no coup attempt through 2026. Unforeseen events such as acute health crises or sudden elite realignments remain the primary, though remote, variables that could alter outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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