Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability against any ECB rate cut in 2026, reflecting the central bank's steady policy stance amid sticky euro-area inflation. Recent CPI releases have remained above the 2% target, with core measures showing limited disinflation progress, while resilient GDP growth and labor market data have reduced the scope for easing. The deposit facility rate sits at levels consistent with a higher-for-longer framework, and forward guidance continues to emphasize data dependence over preemptive cuts. Market pricing aligns with this hawkish tilt, though a sharp downturn in growth or unexpected disinflation could still reopen the door to a late-year move.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật7% khả năng
$31,829 KL.
$31,829 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
7% khả năng
$31,829 KL.
$31,829 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability against any ECB rate cut in 2026, reflecting the central bank's steady policy stance amid sticky euro-area inflation. Recent CPI releases have remained above the 2% target, with core measures showing limited disinflation progress, while resilient GDP growth and labor market data have reduced the scope for easing. The deposit facility rate sits at levels consistent with a higher-for-longer framework, and forward guidance continues to emphasize data dependence over preemptive cuts. Market pricing aligns with this hawkish tilt, though a sharp downturn in growth or unexpected disinflation could still reopen the door to a late-year move.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Khối lượng
$31,829Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability against any ECB rate cut in 2026, reflecting the central bank's steady policy stance amid sticky euro-area inflation. Recent CPI releases have remained above the 2% target, with core measures showing limited disinflation progress, while resilient GDP growth and labor market data have reduced the scope for easing. The deposit facility rate sits at levels consistent with a higher-for-longer framework, and forward guidance continues to emphasize data dependence over preemptive cuts. Market pricing aligns with this hawkish tilt, though a sharp downturn in growth or unexpected disinflation could still reopen the door to a late-year move.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$31,829Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability against any ECB rate cut in 2026, reflecting the central bank's steady policy stance amid sticky euro-area inflation. Recent CPI releases have remained above the 2% target, with core measures showing limited disinflation progress, while resilient GDP growth and labor market data have reduced the scope for easing. The deposit facility rate sits at levels consistent with a higher-for-longer framework, and forward guidance continues to emphasize data dependence over preemptive cuts. Market pricing aligns with this hawkish tilt, though a sharp downturn in growth or unexpected disinflation could still reopen the door to a late-year move.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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