The European Central Bank’s shift toward tighter monetary policy in 2026 stems primarily from the recent Middle East conflict and associated energy price surge, which have pushed euro-area inflation well above the 2% target and prompted widespread expectations of at least one 25-basis-point hike. Official statements from Governing Council members, including signals ahead of the June meeting, combined with updated economist surveys and futures pricing, reflect a data-dependent but hawkish tilt to contain second-round effects. Trader consensus at 99.5% on a hike occurring sometime in 2026 reflects this shift, though faster de-escalation, sustained commodity price declines, or weaker-than-expected growth data could still reduce the likelihood of action.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtECB rate hike in 2026?
ECB rate hike in 2026?
$133,188 KL.
$133,188 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$133,188 KL.
$133,188 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Central Bank’s shift toward tighter monetary policy in 2026 stems primarily from the recent Middle East conflict and associated energy price surge, which have pushed euro-area inflation well above the 2% target and prompted widespread expectations of at least one 25-basis-point hike. Official statements from Governing Council members, including signals ahead of the June meeting, combined with updated economist surveys and futures pricing, reflect a data-dependent but hawkish tilt to contain second-round effects. Trader consensus at 99.5% on a hike occurring sometime in 2026 reflects this shift, though faster de-escalation, sustained commodity price declines, or weaker-than-expected growth data could still reduce the likelihood of action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$133,188Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Central Bank’s shift toward tighter monetary policy in 2026 stems primarily from the recent Middle East conflict and associated energy price surge, which have pushed euro-area inflation well above the 2% target and prompted widespread expectations of at least one 25-basis-point hike. Official statements from Governing Council members, including signals ahead of the June meeting, combined with updated economist surveys and futures pricing, reflect a data-dependent but hawkish tilt to contain second-round effects. Trader consensus at 99.5% on a hike occurring sometime in 2026 reflects this shift, though faster de-escalation, sustained commodity price declines, or weaker-than-expected growth data could still reduce the likelihood of action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$133,188Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The European Central Bank’s shift toward tighter monetary policy in 2026 stems primarily from the recent Middle East conflict and associated energy price surge, which have pushed euro-area inflation well above the 2% target and prompted widespread expectations of at least one 25-basis-point hike. Official statements from Governing Council members, including signals ahead of the June meeting, combined with updated economist surveys and futures pricing, reflect a data-dependent but hawkish tilt to contain second-round effects. Trader consensus at 99.5% on a hike occurring sometime in 2026 reflects this shift, though faster de-escalation, sustained commodity price declines, or weaker-than-expected growth data could still reduce the likelihood of action.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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