**Trader consensus strongly favors a 13°C minimum in Beijing on September 12, 2026, reflecting model consensus and real-time observations of radiative cooling under clear skies and light southerly winds.** Official forecasts from sources aligned with GFS and local analyses project overnight lows near 15–18°C (59–64°F), with the market-implied 98% probability on 13°C indicating traders anticipate the official station reading—likely at a standard meteorological site—will settle at that threshold after accounting for urban heat island effects and precise timing of the daily minimum. Stable high-pressure conditions, dew points around 13–14°C, and minimal cloud cover have supported efficient nocturnal cooling consistent with late-summer climatology, where the long-term average low is approximately 16.9°C. The narrow implied-probability distribution around 13°C underscores high confidence in the absence of frontal systems or significant moisture that could alter the temperature trajectory before resolution. Only an unexpected late-evening surge in wind or measurement discrepancy at the reference station would realistically shift the outcome.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Beijing on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 12?
13°C 98%
11°C 46%
10°C or below 15%
14°C <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 12, 2026
10°C or below
15%
11°C
46%
12°C
-
13°C
98%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
13°C 98%
11°C 46%
10°C or below 15%
14°C <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 12, 2026
10°C or below
$10 KL.
15%
11°C
$0 KL.
46%
12°C
$25 KL.
-
13°C
$66 KL.
98%
14°C
$386 KL.
<1%
15°C
$126 KL.
<1%
16°C
$90 KL.
<1%
17°C
$500 KL.
<1%
18°C
$25 KL.
<1%
19°C
$227 KL.
<1%
20°C or higher
$35 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 13°C minimum in Beijing on September 12, 2026, reflecting model consensus and real-time observations of radiative cooling under clear skies and light southerly winds.** Official forecasts from sources aligned with GFS and local analyses project overnight lows near 15–18°C (59–64°F), with the market-implied 98% probability on 13°C indicating traders anticipate the official station reading—likely at a standard meteorological site—will settle at that threshold after accounting for urban heat island effects and precise timing of the daily minimum. Stable high-pressure conditions, dew points around 13–14°C, and minimal cloud cover have supported efficient nocturnal cooling consistent with late-summer climatology, where the long-term average low is approximately 16.9°C. The narrow implied-probability distribution around 13°C underscores high confidence in the absence of frontal systems or significant moisture that could alter the temperature trajectory before resolution. Only an unexpected late-evening surge in wind or measurement discrepancy at the reference station would realistically shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,490Ngày kết thúc
Sep 12, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 13°C minimum in Beijing on September 12, 2026, reflecting model consensus and real-time observations of radiative cooling under clear skies and light southerly winds.** Official forecasts from sources aligned with GFS and local analyses project overnight lows near 15–18°C (59–64°F), with the market-implied 98% probability on 13°C indicating traders anticipate the official station reading—likely at a standard meteorological site—will settle at that threshold after accounting for urban heat island effects and precise timing of the daily minimum. Stable high-pressure conditions, dew points around 13–14°C, and minimal cloud cover have supported efficient nocturnal cooling consistent with late-summer climatology, where the long-term average low is approximately 16.9°C. The narrow implied-probability distribution around 13°C underscores high confidence in the absence of frontal systems or significant moisture that could alter the temperature trajectory before resolution. Only an unexpected late-evening surge in wind or measurement discrepancy at the reference station would realistically shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$1,490Ngày kết thúc
Sep 12, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors a 13°C minimum in Beijing on September 12, 2026, reflecting model consensus and real-time observations of radiative cooling under clear skies and light southerly winds.** Official forecasts from sources aligned with GFS and local analyses project overnight lows near 15–18°C (59–64°F), with the market-implied 98% probability on 13°C indicating traders anticipate the official station reading—likely at a standard meteorological site—will settle at that threshold after accounting for urban heat island effects and precise timing of the daily minimum. Stable high-pressure conditions, dew points around 13–14°C, and minimal cloud cover have supported efficient nocturnal cooling consistent with late-summer climatology, where the long-term average low is approximately 16.9°C. The narrow implied-probability distribution around 13°C underscores high confidence in the absence of frontal systems or significant moisture that could alter the temperature trajectory before resolution. Only an unexpected late-evening surge in wind or measurement discrepancy at the reference station would realistically shift the outcome.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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