Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to overnight lows in the low 80s for Miami on August 23, driven by persistently high dew points near 76–78 °F that restrict radiative cooling under humid, mostly cloudy conditions. Afternoon thunderstorms expected to develop with 50–70 % probability will further limit nighttime temperature drops through cloud cover and residual moisture. Current observations on August 22 show morning readings near 82 °F, consistent with the multi-day trend of minima in the upper 70s to low 80s. Market-implied probabilities favor the 80–83 °F bins because ensemble spreads remain narrow around these values, with only modest downside risk if clearer skies allow greater cooling. Historical August climatology (average low 77.7 °F) provides context but is outweighed by the present warm, moist airmass.