Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and widespread thunderstorms forecast for September 4 are limiting radiative cooling overnight in Taipei, keeping minimum temperatures from falling below the mid-20s °C. Multiple forecast models, including those referenced by the Central Weather Administration and international services, project lows clustered between 24–26 °C under these conditions, with 26 °C emerging as the modal outcome in recent runs. Persistent moisture from upstream weather systems has maintained elevated dew points near 25 °C, reducing the diurnal temperature range compared with clearer September climatology. Traders have priced this consensus into the market, assigning the highest implied probability to 26 °C while assigning lower odds to cooler extremes that would require unexpected clearing or stronger northerly flow. Updated model guidance over the next 24–48 hours will determine whether probabilities shift toward 24–25 °C or remain anchored near 26 °C.