Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican tilt following 2025-2026 redistricting, with Donald Trump carrying the area by 32 points in 2024 and the new boundaries preserving a solid GOP advantage across western Utah counties and portions of Salt Lake and Utah counties. Burgess Owens's March 2026 retirement opened the seat, but Mike Kennedy, the sitting representative from the former 3rd district, secured the Republican nomination in the recent primary and enters as the clear frontrunner. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advanced without opposition but confronts structural headwinds including lower name recognition and limited crossover appeal in a district rated solidly Republican by analysts. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical patterns where similar Utah seats have delivered consistent GOP margins. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected national economic developments or late candidate-specific controversies, though no such factors have emerged to date.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUT-04 House Election Winner
UT-04 House Election Winner
$32,763 KL.
$32,763 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
6%
$32,763 KL.
$32,763 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$15,310 KL.
94%
Democratic Party
$17,452 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican tilt following 2025-2026 redistricting, with Donald Trump carrying the area by 32 points in 2024 and the new boundaries preserving a solid GOP advantage across western Utah counties and portions of Salt Lake and Utah counties. Burgess Owens's March 2026 retirement opened the seat, but Mike Kennedy, the sitting representative from the former 3rd district, secured the Republican nomination in the recent primary and enters as the clear frontrunner. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advanced without opposition but confronts structural headwinds including lower name recognition and limited crossover appeal in a district rated solidly Republican by analysts. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical patterns where similar Utah seats have delivered consistent GOP margins. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected national economic developments or late candidate-specific controversies, though no such factors have emerged to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Khối lượng
$32,763Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican tilt following 2025-2026 redistricting, with Donald Trump carrying the area by 32 points in 2024 and the new boundaries preserving a solid GOP advantage across western Utah counties and portions of Salt Lake and Utah counties. Burgess Owens's March 2026 retirement opened the seat, but Mike Kennedy, the sitting representative from the former 3rd district, secured the Republican nomination in the recent primary and enters as the clear frontrunner. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advanced without opposition but confronts structural headwinds including lower name recognition and limited crossover appeal in a district rated solidly Republican by analysts. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical patterns where similar Utah seats have delivered consistent GOP margins. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected national economic developments or late candidate-specific controversies, though no such factors have emerged to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$32,763Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican tilt following 2025-2026 redistricting, with Donald Trump carrying the area by 32 points in 2024 and the new boundaries preserving a solid GOP advantage across western Utah counties and portions of Salt Lake and Utah counties. Burgess Owens's March 2026 retirement opened the seat, but Mike Kennedy, the sitting representative from the former 3rd district, secured the Republican nomination in the recent primary and enters as the clear frontrunner. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advanced without opposition but confronts structural headwinds including lower name recognition and limited crossover appeal in a district rated solidly Republican by analysts. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical patterns where similar Utah seats have delivered consistent GOP margins. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected national economic developments or late candidate-specific controversies, though no such factors have emerged to date.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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