Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 95.5% for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by current mid-April conditions lacking the prerequisites for development: National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports no active tropical disturbances, sea surface temperatures in the main development region remain below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained intensification to hurricane-force winds (74 mph+), and high vertical wind shear inhibits organization. Historical data shows such early-season hurricanes are exceedingly rare, with none in recent decades before June 1. Forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity overall under weak La Niña influences. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen disturbance entering anomalously warm waters with shear relaxation, though NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks resume May 15 for monitoring.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill a hurricane form by May 31?
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$42,721 KL.
$42,721 KL.
May 31, 2026
$42,721 KL.
$42,721 KL.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 95.5% for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by current mid-April conditions lacking the prerequisites for development: National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports no active tropical disturbances, sea surface temperatures in the main development region remain below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained intensification to hurricane-force winds (74 mph+), and high vertical wind shear inhibits organization. Historical data shows such early-season hurricanes are exceedingly rare, with none in recent decades before June 1. Forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity overall under weak La Niña influences. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen disturbance entering anomalously warm waters with shear relaxation, though NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks resume May 15 for monitoring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Thị trường mở: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Khối lượng
$42,721Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 95.5% for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by current mid-April conditions lacking the prerequisites for development: National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports no active tropical disturbances, sea surface temperatures in the main development region remain below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained intensification to hurricane-force winds (74 mph+), and high vertical wind shear inhibits organization. Historical data shows such early-season hurricanes are exceedingly rare, with none in recent decades before June 1. Forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity overall under weak La Niña influences. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen disturbance entering anomalously warm waters with shear relaxation, though NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks resume May 15 for monitoring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Khối lượng
$42,721Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 95.5% for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by current mid-April conditions lacking the prerequisites for development: National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports no active tropical disturbances, sea surface temperatures in the main development region remain below the 26.5°C threshold needed for sustained intensification to hurricane-force winds (74 mph+), and high vertical wind shear inhibits organization. Historical data shows such early-season hurricanes are exceedingly rare, with none in recent decades before June 1. Forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University predict below-normal 2026 activity overall under weak La Niña influences. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen disturbance entering anomalously warm waters with shear relaxation, though NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks resume May 15 for monitoring.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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