Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus for the April 19 snap parliamentary election due to consistent double-digit leads in final polls, with recent surveys like Market Links (April 14, PB 37%) and CAM (April 3-14, PB 32% projecting 90 seats) far ahead of GERB-SDS at 19-21%. Radev's anti-corruption platform resonates amid Bulgaria's political deadlock—the eighth snap vote since 2021—exacerbated by the prior government's resignation over budget disputes and graft allegations, under a mixed electoral system favoring larger parties. Recent stability in polling aggregates reflects voter fatigue with fragmented coalitions. Despite the 99% implied probability, late scandals, undecided voter swings (around 15-20%), or turnout surges could challenge PB's plurality in the 240-seat National Assembly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於PB 99.0%
GERB–SDS <1%
我們繼續變革—民主保加利亞(PP–DB) <1%
DPS <1%
$216,630 交易量
$216,630 交易量

PB
99%

GERB–SDS
<1%

我們繼續變革—民主保加利亞(PP–DB)
<1%

DPS
<1%

ITN
<1%

Velichie
<1%

APS
<1%

保加利亞社會黨-聯合左翼
<1%

MECH
<1%

復興黨
<1%
PB 99.0%
GERB–SDS <1%
我們繼續變革—民主保加利亞(PP–DB) <1%
DPS <1%
$216,630 交易量
$216,630 交易量

PB
99%

GERB–SDS
<1%

我們繼續變革—民主保加利亞(PP–DB)
<1%

DPS
<1%

ITN
<1%

Velichie
<1%

APS
<1%

保加利亞社會黨-聯合左翼
<1%

MECH
<1%

復興黨
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
市場開放時間: Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus for the April 19 snap parliamentary election due to consistent double-digit leads in final polls, with recent surveys like Market Links (April 14, PB 37%) and CAM (April 3-14, PB 32% projecting 90 seats) far ahead of GERB-SDS at 19-21%. Radev's anti-corruption platform resonates amid Bulgaria's political deadlock—the eighth snap vote since 2021—exacerbated by the prior government's resignation over budget disputes and graft allegations, under a mixed electoral system favoring larger parties. Recent stability in polling aggregates reflects voter fatigue with fragmented coalitions. Despite the 99% implied probability, late scandals, undecided voter swings (around 15-20%), or turnout surges could challenge PB's plurality in the 240-seat National Assembly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions