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icon for 加州公眾運動融資提案

加州公眾運動融資提案

icon for 加州公眾運動融資提案

加州公眾運動融資提案

43% 機率
Polymarket
最新

43% 機率
Polymarket
最新
Proposition 4 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would give California governments the authority to set up public financing systems for state and local political candidates. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).**Proposition 4 would repeal California's 1988 ban on public campaign financing, authorizing the state and local governments to establish voluntary programs that match small-dollar contributions under spending limits, eligibility rules, and restrictions barring use of earmarked taxpayer funds.** The legislature referred the measure via SB 42 in 2025 with Democratic support and Republican opposition; it appears on the November 2026 ballot. Backers including the League of Women Voters of California, Common Cause, and labor groups argue it counters big-money influence, while the California Taxpayers Association highlights potential costs. With limited organized opposition and early-stage fundraising reported so far, trader consensus near 50% reflects uncertainty over voter reaction to public financing in a state long restricted by the prior ban, turnout dynamics, and any late-cycle spending or polling shifts on campaign finance reform.

Proposition 4 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would give California governments the authority to set up public financing systems for state and local political candidates.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
交易量
$0
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Jul 1, 2026, 6:31 PM ET
Proposition 4 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would give California governments the authority to set up public financing systems for state and local political candidates. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 4 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would give California governments the authority to set up public financing systems for state and local political candidates. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).**Proposition 4 would repeal California's 1988 ban on public campaign financing, authorizing the state and local governments to establish voluntary programs that match small-dollar contributions under spending limits, eligibility rules, and restrictions barring use of earmarked taxpayer funds.** The legislature referred the measure via SB 42 in 2025 with Democratic support and Republican opposition; it appears on the November 2026 ballot. Backers including the League of Women Voters of California, Common Cause, and labor groups argue it counters big-money influence, while the California Taxpayers Association highlights potential costs. With limited organized opposition and early-stage fundraising reported so far, trader consensus near 50% reflects uncertainty over voter reaction to public financing in a state long restricted by the prior ban, turnout dynamics, and any late-cycle spending or polling shifts on campaign finance reform.

Proposition 4 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would give California governments the authority to set up public financing systems for state and local political candidates.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
交易量
$0
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Jul 1, 2026, 6:31 PM ET
Proposition 4 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would give California governments the authority to set up public financing systems for state and local political candidates. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"加州公眾運動融資提案" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "加州公共競選資金提案" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"加州公眾運動融資提案" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "加州公眾運動融資提案," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "加州公眾運動融資提案" is "加州公共競選資金提案" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "加州公眾運動融資提案" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.