Trader consensus clusters around 66-69°F for Chicago's March 26 high temperature, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast predicting 67°F amid a building upper-level ridge ushering southerly winds and above-normal warmth. Ensemble models like GFS (bias toward 68-70°F) and ECMWF (cooler 64-66°F) diverge by 3-4°F due to uncertainties in cloud cover timing and a potential weak cold frontal boundary late in the day, explaining the tight race between adjacent bins. Climatological March 26 highs average 48°F, but persistent warm anomalies and dew point advection support elevated odds; upcoming 12z model runs could shift probabilities as traders parse resolution thresholds from O'Hare observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
68-69°F 19%
66-67°F 16%
70-71°F 15%
64-65°F 14%
$37,966 交易量
$37,966 交易量
59°F or below
10%
60-61°F
6%
62-63°F
11%
64-65°F
14%
66-67°F
16%
68-69°F
19%
70-71°F
15%
72-73°F
14%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
1%
78°F or higher
2%
68-69°F 19%
66-67°F 16%
70-71°F 15%
64-65°F 14%
$37,966 交易量
$37,966 交易量
59°F or below
10%
60-61°F
6%
62-63°F
11%
64-65°F
14%
66-67°F
16%
68-69°F
19%
70-71°F
15%
72-73°F
14%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
1%
78°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters around 66-69°F for Chicago's March 26 high temperature, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast predicting 67°F amid a building upper-level ridge ushering southerly winds and above-normal warmth. Ensemble models like GFS (bias toward 68-70°F) and ECMWF (cooler 64-66°F) diverge by 3-4°F due to uncertainties in cloud cover timing and a potential weak cold frontal boundary late in the day, explaining the tight race between adjacent bins. Climatological March 26 highs average 48°F, but persistent warm anomalies and dew point advection support elevated odds; upcoming 12z model runs could shift probabilities as traders parse resolution thresholds from O'Hare observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions