Divergent global weather model ensembles are the primary driver splitting trader sentiment on Chengdu's March 28 high temperature, with ECMWF clusters implying warmer outcomes around 24°C or higher (26% odds) amid ridging aloft, while GFS runs favor cooler scenarios like 14°C or below (25.5%) due to cold air advection from northern fronts. Chengdu's Sichuan Basin location amplifies uncertainty through frequent temperature inversions and fog, historically yielding March highs averaging 17-19°C but with 2-3°C swings from urban heat or pollution. Official CMA updates and 12Z model refreshes will be pivotal, as ensemble spreads exceed 5°C, keeping mid-range bids (17-21°C at 17.5% each) tightly matched.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 28?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 28?
24°C or higher 26%
14°C or below 26%
17°C 18%
18°C 18%
14°C or below
26%
15°C
13%
16°C
16%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
18%
21°C
18%
22°C
16%
23°C
14%
24°C or higher
26%
24°C or higher 26%
14°C or below 26%
17°C 18%
18°C 18%
14°C or below
26%
15°C
13%
16°C
16%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
18%
21°C
18%
22°C
16%
23°C
14%
24°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 24, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Divergent global weather model ensembles are the primary driver splitting trader sentiment on Chengdu's March 28 high temperature, with ECMWF clusters implying warmer outcomes around 24°C or higher (26% odds) amid ridging aloft, while GFS runs favor cooler scenarios like 14°C or below (25.5%) due to cold air advection from northern fronts. Chengdu's Sichuan Basin location amplifies uncertainty through frequent temperature inversions and fog, historically yielding March highs averaging 17-19°C but with 2-3°C swings from urban heat or pollution. Official CMA updates and 12Z model refreshes will be pivotal, as ensemble spreads exceed 5°C, keeping mid-range bids (17-21°C at 17.5% each) tightly matched.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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