Trader sentiment for Austin's highest temperature on March 28 remains tightly split, with 25.5% implied odds each for 61°F or below and 80°F or higher, driven by divergent short-range ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models. The National Weather Service operational forecast calls for sunny skies and a high near 80°F under south winds and a strengthening upper-level ridge, favoring the warm outcome amid Austin's typical late-March diurnal range of 15-20°F. However, ensemble spreads highlight tail risks: cooler projections from stalled frontal boundaries or morning cloud cover could suppress peaks below 70°F, while amplified ridging might push above 82°F. Historical normals (~76°F high) and recent warm anomalies add to the bimodal trader positioning ahead of final 00z model runs.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Austin on March 28?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 28?
80°F or higher 25%
61°F or below 21%
70-71°F 18%
72-73°F 17%
61°F or below
21%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
13%
66-67°F
14%
68-69°F
16%
70-71°F
18%
72-73°F
17%
74-75°F
17%
76-77°F
17%
78-79°F
17%
80°F or higher
25%
80°F or higher 25%
61°F or below 21%
70-71°F 18%
72-73°F 17%
61°F or below
21%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
13%
66-67°F
14%
68-69°F
16%
70-71°F
18%
72-73°F
17%
74-75°F
17%
76-77°F
17%
78-79°F
17%
80°F or higher
25%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 24, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Austin's highest temperature on March 28 remains tightly split, with 25.5% implied odds each for 61°F or below and 80°F or higher, driven by divergent short-range ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models. The National Weather Service operational forecast calls for sunny skies and a high near 80°F under south winds and a strengthening upper-level ridge, favoring the warm outcome amid Austin's typical late-March diurnal range of 15-20°F. However, ensemble spreads highlight tail risks: cooler projections from stalled frontal boundaries or morning cloud cover could suppress peaks below 70°F, while amplified ridging might push above 82°F. Historical normals (~76°F high) and recent warm anomalies add to the bimodal trader positioning ahead of final 00z model runs.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions