Trader sentiment for Los Angeles' highest temperature on March 28 hinges on uncertainty in Santa Ana wind forecasts, with closely matched odds reflecting divergent weather models like ECMWF leaning toward strong offshore gusts that could drive adiabatic warming to 86°F or higher (22.0% implied probability), while GFS ensembles favor weaker winds allowing marine layer stratus to cap peaks at 76-77°F (23.5%) or below 67°F (21.3%). NOAA's National Weather Service point forecast eyes a high near 80°F amid a high-pressure ridge, but low soil moisture and potential downslope warming differentiate hot scenarios from cooler marine-influenced outcomes, with key updates from afternoon model runs potentially shifting trader consensus before resolution at LAX observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 28?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 28?
76-77°F 24%
67°F or below 20.1%
74-75°F 20%
86°F or higher 19%
67°F or below
20%
68-69°F
15%
70-71°F
16%
72-73°F
18%
74-75°F
20%
76-77°F
24%
78-79°F
19%
80-81°F
16%
82-83°F
14%
84-85°F
5%
86°F or higher
19%
76-77°F 24%
67°F or below 20.1%
74-75°F 20%
86°F or higher 19%
67°F or below
20%
68-69°F
15%
70-71°F
16%
72-73°F
18%
74-75°F
20%
76-77°F
24%
78-79°F
19%
80-81°F
16%
82-83°F
14%
84-85°F
5%
86°F or higher
19%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 24, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Los Angeles' highest temperature on March 28 hinges on uncertainty in Santa Ana wind forecasts, with closely matched odds reflecting divergent weather models like ECMWF leaning toward strong offshore gusts that could drive adiabatic warming to 86°F or higher (22.0% implied probability), while GFS ensembles favor weaker winds allowing marine layer stratus to cap peaks at 76-77°F (23.5%) or below 67°F (21.3%). NOAA's National Weather Service point forecast eyes a high near 80°F amid a high-pressure ridge, but low soil moisture and potential downslope warming differentiate hot scenarios from cooler marine-influenced outcomes, with key updates from afternoon model runs potentially shifting trader consensus before resolution at LAX observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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