Divergent ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS drive the fragmented trader sentiment for Chongqing's March 28 high temperature, with 24°C+ implied at 25.5% on ECMWF's warmer bias amid high-pressure ridging, while clustered 15-19°C odds (17.5% each) reflect GFS cooling from northerly winds and cloud cover. Recent developments include a moderating cold front per China Meteorological Administration updates, reducing extremes below 14°C to 5%, but persistent uncertainty in diurnal heating and urban heat island effects differentiates outcomes—historical late-March norms hover at 18-20°C, with solar insolation pivotal for breaking 23°C. Traders eye tomorrow's 00Z runs for resolution shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Chongqing on March 28?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on March 28?
24°C or higher 26%
15°C 18%
16°C 18%
17°C 18%
14°C or below
5%
15°C
18%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
17%
21°C
16%
22°C
15%
23°C
13%
24°C or higher
26%
24°C or higher 26%
15°C 18%
16°C 18%
17°C 18%
14°C or below
5%
15°C
18%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
17%
21°C
16%
22°C
15%
23°C
13%
24°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 24, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Divergent ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS drive the fragmented trader sentiment for Chongqing's March 28 high temperature, with 24°C+ implied at 25.5% on ECMWF's warmer bias amid high-pressure ridging, while clustered 15-19°C odds (17.5% each) reflect GFS cooling from northerly winds and cloud cover. Recent developments include a moderating cold front per China Meteorological Administration updates, reducing extremes below 14°C to 5%, but persistent uncertainty in diurnal heating and urban heat island effects differentiates outcomes—historical late-March norms hover at 18-20°C, with solar insolation pivotal for breaking 23°C. Traders eye tomorrow's 00Z runs for resolution shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions