Recent forecast models from sources like GFS indicate clear skies, southerly winds, and high pressure over Madrid will drive peak daytime heating on September 7, positioning 37–38°C as the most likely outcomes with strong model consensus. These conditions favor rapid surface warming under low humidity and minimal cloud cover typical of late-summer subsidence patterns, though ensemble spreads introduce modest uncertainty around exact maxima. Historical September 7 records peak at 38.5°C, providing context for current implied probabilities near 93% combined for 37–38°C. Updated model runs and official observations in the next 48 hours will refine these market-implied odds as the date approaches.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月7日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月7日馬德裏氣溫最高？
37°C 55%
38°C 39%
36°C 6%
35°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-09-07
34°C或以下
2%
35°C
3%
36°C
6%
37°C
55%
38°C
39%
39°C
3%
40°C
2%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C或更高
<1%
37°C 55%
38°C 39%
36°C 6%
35°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-09-07
34°C或以下
$0 交易量
2%
35°C
$40 交易量
3%
36°C
$33 交易量
6%
37°C
$657 交易量
55%
38°C
$377 交易量
39%
39°C
$68 交易量
3%
40°C
$0 交易量
2%
41°C
$90 交易量
1%
42°C
$33 交易量
<1%
43°C
$307 交易量
<1%
44°C或更高
$307 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like GFS indicate clear skies, southerly winds, and high pressure over Madrid will drive peak daytime heating on September 7, positioning 37–38°C as the most likely outcomes with strong model consensus. These conditions favor rapid surface warming under low humidity and minimal cloud cover typical of late-summer subsidence patterns, though ensemble spreads introduce modest uncertainty around exact maxima. Historical September 7 records peak at 38.5°C, providing context for current implied probabilities near 93% combined for 37–38°C. Updated model runs and official observations in the next 48 hours will refine these market-implied odds as the date approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$1,912結束日期
2026-09-07市場開放時間
Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like GFS indicate clear skies, southerly winds, and high pressure over Madrid will drive peak daytime heating on September 7, positioning 37–38°C as the most likely outcomes with strong model consensus. These conditions favor rapid surface warming under low humidity and minimal cloud cover typical of late-summer subsidence patterns, though ensemble spreads introduce modest uncertainty around exact maxima. Historical September 7 records peak at 38.5°C, providing context for current implied probabilities near 93% combined for 37–38°C. Updated model runs and official observations in the next 48 hours will refine these market-implied odds as the date approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,912結束日期
2026-09-07市場開放時間
Sep 5, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent forecast models from sources like GFS indicate clear skies, southerly winds, and high pressure over Madrid will drive peak daytime heating on September 7, positioning 37–38°C as the most likely outcomes with strong model consensus. These conditions favor rapid surface warming under low humidity and minimal cloud cover typical of late-summer subsidence patterns, though ensemble spreads introduce modest uncertainty around exact maxima. Historical September 7 records peak at 38.5°C, providing context for current implied probabilities near 93% combined for 37–38°C. Updated model runs and official observations in the next 48 hours will refine these market-implied odds as the date approaches.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions