Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts points to a high-pressure ridge sustaining mostly clear skies over Madrid on September 6, with afternoon highs expected near 36–37 °C under light southerly flow. This setup aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 37 °C, as ensemble runs show limited potential for stronger warming or cooling deviations typical of early September climatology. Current observations indicate no significant moisture influx or frontal passage that would moderate temperatures below 35 °C or push them toward the 38–39 °C range recorded in past analogs. Updated model guidance ahead of the event remains the key variable that could shift these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月6日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月6日馬德裏氣溫最高？
37°C 49%
36°C 32%
38°C 20%
39°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-09-06
33°C或以下
<1%
34°C
4%
35°C
4%
36°C
32%
37°C
49%
38°C
20%
39°C
8%
40°C
2%
41°C
2%
42°C
2%
43°C或以上
<1%
37°C 49%
36°C 32%
38°C 20%
39°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-09-06
33°C或以下
$33 交易量
<1%
34°C
$0 交易量
4%
35°C
$60 交易量
4%
36°C
$310 交易量
32%
37°C
$44 交易量
49%
38°C
$140 交易量
20%
39°C
$0 交易量
8%
40°C
$5 交易量
2%
41°C
$0 交易量
2%
42°C
$0 交易量
2%
43°C或以上
$36 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts points to a high-pressure ridge sustaining mostly clear skies over Madrid on September 6, with afternoon highs expected near 36–37 °C under light southerly flow. This setup aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 37 °C, as ensemble runs show limited potential for stronger warming or cooling deviations typical of early September climatology. Current observations indicate no significant moisture influx or frontal passage that would moderate temperatures below 35 °C or push them toward the 38–39 °C range recorded in past analogs. Updated model guidance ahead of the event remains the key variable that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$628結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts points to a high-pressure ridge sustaining mostly clear skies over Madrid on September 6, with afternoon highs expected near 36–37 °C under light southerly flow. This setup aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 37 °C, as ensemble runs show limited potential for stronger warming or cooling deviations typical of early September climatology. Current observations indicate no significant moisture influx or frontal passage that would moderate temperatures below 35 °C or push them toward the 38–39 °C range recorded in past analogs. Updated model guidance ahead of the event remains the key variable that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$628結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent forecast model consensus from agencies including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts points to a high-pressure ridge sustaining mostly clear skies over Madrid on September 6, with afternoon highs expected near 36–37 °C under light southerly flow. This setup aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 37 °C, as ensemble runs show limited potential for stronger warming or cooling deviations typical of early September climatology. Current observations indicate no significant moisture influx or frontal passage that would moderate temperatures below 35 °C or push them toward the 38–39 °C range recorded in past analogs. Updated model guidance ahead of the event remains the key variable that could shift these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions