Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 23°C as the highest temperature in Tokyo on April 28 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations showing a midday peak of 23°C under partly sunny conditions, aligning closely with the daily normal maximum of 22.2°C. Increasing cloud cover ("sunny later cloudy" per JMA forecast) and the declining solar angle in the late diurnal cycle have prevented further warming, with current readings around 15–21°C and sunset approaching at approximately 18:30 JST. This positioning reflects real-time monitoring data from Tokyo's official station, where urban heat island effects remain subdued amid mild southerly flows. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing skies and residual solar heating to nudge above 24°C before resolution, though model ensembles and hourly trends indicate low likelihood as the day concludes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 28?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 28?
23°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$118,334 交易量
$118,334 交易量
2026-04-28
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$118,334 交易量
$118,334 交易量
2026-04-28
15°C or below
$1,110 交易量
No
16°C
$1,442 交易量
No
17°C
$3,685 交易量
No
18°C
$4,443 交易量
No
19°C
$6,938 交易量
No
20°C
$13,406 交易量
No
21°C
$19,426 交易量
No
22°C
$11,922 交易量
No
23°C
$24,718 交易量
Yes
24°C
$15,986 交易量
No
25°C or higher
$15,259 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 23°C as the highest temperature in Tokyo on April 28 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations showing a midday peak of 23°C under partly sunny conditions, aligning closely with the daily normal maximum of 22.2°C. Increasing cloud cover ("sunny later cloudy" per JMA forecast) and the declining solar angle in the late diurnal cycle have prevented further warming, with current readings around 15–21°C and sunset approaching at approximately 18:30 JST. This positioning reflects real-time monitoring data from Tokyo's official station, where urban heat island effects remain subdued amid mild southerly flows. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing skies and residual solar heating to nudge above 24°C before resolution, though model ensembles and hourly trends indicate low likelihood as the day concludes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 26, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$118,334結束日期
2026-04-28市場開放時間
Apr 26, 2026, 12:58 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 23°C as the highest temperature in Tokyo on April 28 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations showing a midday peak of 23°C under partly sunny conditions, aligning closely with the daily normal maximum of 22.2°C. Increasing cloud cover ("sunny later cloudy" per JMA forecast) and the declining solar angle in the late diurnal cycle have prevented further warming, with current readings around 15–21°C and sunset approaching at approximately 18:30 JST. This positioning reflects real-time monitoring data from Tokyo's official station, where urban heat island effects remain subdued amid mild southerly flows. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing skies and residual solar heating to nudge above 24°C before resolution, though model ensembles and hourly trends indicate low likelihood as the day concludes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$118,334結束日期
2026-04-28市場開放時間
Apr 26, 2026, 12:58 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 23°C as the highest temperature in Tokyo on April 28 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations showing a midday peak of 23°C under partly sunny conditions, aligning closely with the daily normal maximum of 22.2°C. Increasing cloud cover ("sunny later cloudy" per JMA forecast) and the declining solar angle in the late diurnal cycle have prevented further warming, with current readings around 15–21°C and sunset approaching at approximately 18:30 JST. This positioning reflects real-time monitoring data from Tokyo's official station, where urban heat island effects remain subdued amid mild southerly flows. A realistic challenge would require sudden clearing skies and residual solar heating to nudge above 24°C before resolution, though model ensembles and hourly trends indicate low likelihood as the day concludes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions