Recent forecast consensus from models and the Japan Meteorological Agency points to widespread rain and thick cloud cover suppressing solar heating on September 26, keeping Tokyo's daytime maximum near 22°C amid northerly winds advecting cooler maritime air. Persistent precipitation, with probabilities exceeding 90% in afternoon hours, will further limit warming while historical late-September baselines average 25°C. Trader positioning clusters tightly around 22–23°C outcomes, reflecting model agreement on limited diurnal range but acknowledging small uncertainties in exact steering patterns or rainfall timing that could shift the peak by 1°C. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs over the next 24–48 hours will provide the final observational inputs ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月26日東京氣溫最高？
9月26日東京氣溫最高？
23°C 29%
22°C 27%
20°C 21%
24°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-09-26
18°C或以下
4%
19°C
3%
20°C
21%
21°C
12%
22°C
27%
23°C
29%
24°C
14%
25°C
9%
26°C
10%
27°C
6%
28°C或以上
2%
23°C 29%
22°C 27%
20°C 21%
24°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-09-26
18°C或以下
$0 交易量
4%
19°C
$2 交易量
3%
20°C
$0 交易量
21%
21°C
$119 交易量
12%
22°C
$0 交易量
27%
23°C
$0 交易量
29%
24°C
$35 交易量
14%
25°C
$18 交易量
9%
26°C
$0 交易量
10%
27°C
$0 交易量
6%
28°C或以上
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models and the Japan Meteorological Agency points to widespread rain and thick cloud cover suppressing solar heating on September 26, keeping Tokyo's daytime maximum near 22°C amid northerly winds advecting cooler maritime air. Persistent precipitation, with probabilities exceeding 90% in afternoon hours, will further limit warming while historical late-September baselines average 25°C. Trader positioning clusters tightly around 22–23°C outcomes, reflecting model agreement on limited diurnal range but acknowledging small uncertainties in exact steering patterns or rainfall timing that could shift the peak by 1°C. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs over the next 24–48 hours will provide the final observational inputs ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$137結束日期
2026-09-26市場開放時間
Sep 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models and the Japan Meteorological Agency points to widespread rain and thick cloud cover suppressing solar heating on September 26, keeping Tokyo's daytime maximum near 22°C amid northerly winds advecting cooler maritime air. Persistent precipitation, with probabilities exceeding 90% in afternoon hours, will further limit warming while historical late-September baselines average 25°C. Trader positioning clusters tightly around 22–23°C outcomes, reflecting model agreement on limited diurnal range but acknowledging small uncertainties in exact steering patterns or rainfall timing that could shift the peak by 1°C. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs over the next 24–48 hours will provide the final observational inputs ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$137結束日期
2026-09-26市場開放時間
Sep 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent forecast consensus from models and the Japan Meteorological Agency points to widespread rain and thick cloud cover suppressing solar heating on September 26, keeping Tokyo's daytime maximum near 22°C amid northerly winds advecting cooler maritime air. Persistent precipitation, with probabilities exceeding 90% in afternoon hours, will further limit warming while historical late-September baselines average 25°C. Trader positioning clusters tightly around 22–23°C outcomes, reflecting model agreement on limited diurnal range but acknowledging small uncertainties in exact steering patterns or rainfall timing that could shift the peak by 1°C. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs over the next 24–48 hours will provide the final observational inputs ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions