Forecast models from agencies including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA’s GFS show Warsaw under stable high pressure with southwesterly flow, producing a maximum temperature of 22°C on September 19 amid mostly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with mid-September climatology near 18–20°C and explains the market’s near-certain implied probability for the 22°C outcome. A 27°C reading would require an unseasonal warm-air advection event or model bias reversal, both inconsistent with current observational data and ensemble consensus. Updated model runs through evening will provide final verification ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月19日華沙的最高溫度？
9月19日華沙的最高溫度？
22°C 100%
17°C或以下 <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$55,444 交易量
$55,444 交易量
2026-09-19
17°C或以下
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
是
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C或以上
否
22°C 100%
17°C或以下 <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$55,444 交易量
$55,444 交易量
2026-09-19
17°C或以下
$2,843 交易量
否
18°C
$78 交易量
否
19°C
$247 交易量
否
20°C
$3,219 交易量
否
21°C
$23,117 交易量
否
22°C
$13,476 交易量
是
23°C
$6,917 交易量
否
24°C
$4,305 交易量
否
25°C
$854 交易量
否
26°C
$119 交易量
否
27°C或以上
$269 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA’s GFS show Warsaw under stable high pressure with southwesterly flow, producing a maximum temperature of 22°C on September 19 amid mostly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with mid-September climatology near 18–20°C and explains the market’s near-certain implied probability for the 22°C outcome. A 27°C reading would require an unseasonal warm-air advection event or model bias reversal, both inconsistent with current observational data and ensemble consensus. Updated model runs through evening will provide final verification ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$55,444結束日期
2026-09-19市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA’s GFS show Warsaw under stable high pressure with southwesterly flow, producing a maximum temperature of 22°C on September 19 amid mostly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with mid-September climatology near 18–20°C and explains the market’s near-certain implied probability for the 22°C outcome. A 27°C reading would require an unseasonal warm-air advection event or model bias reversal, both inconsistent with current observational data and ensemble consensus. Updated model runs through evening will provide final verification ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$55,444結束日期
2026-09-19市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Forecast models from agencies including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA’s GFS show Warsaw under stable high pressure with southwesterly flow, producing a maximum temperature of 22°C on September 19 amid mostly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with mid-September climatology near 18–20°C and explains the market’s near-certain implied probability for the 22°C outcome. A 27°C reading would require an unseasonal warm-air advection event or model bias reversal, both inconsistent with current observational data and ensemble consensus. Updated model runs through evening will provide final verification ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions