Recent model consensus from major forecasting centers places Warsaw’s expected high temperature for September 25 in a narrow 13–16 °C range, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 14 °C (34 %) and 15 °C (30 %). Ensemble spreads in the ECMWF and GFS runs show modest uncertainty tied to variable cloud cover, weak southerly flow, and surface pressure gradients that can alter maximum temperatures by 1–2 °C. Historical late-September climatology for the city centers near 16 °C, but current guidance indicates slightly cooler boundary-layer conditions. Traders will watch the next high-resolution model updates and any revised surface observations for shifts that could move the most probable outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月25日華沙的最高溫度？
9月25日華沙的最高溫度？
14°C 35%
15°C 30%
13°C 21%
16°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-25
11°C或以下
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
21%
14°C
35%
15°C
30%
16°C
13%
17°C
2%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C或更高
<1%
14°C 35%
15°C 30%
13°C 21%
16°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-25
11°C或以下
$179 交易量
1%
12°C
$275 交易量
3%
13°C
$977 交易量
21%
14°C
$547 交易量
35%
15°C
$2,196 交易量
30%
16°C
$1,568 交易量
13%
17°C
$96 交易量
2%
18°C
$215 交易量
<1%
19°C
$183 交易量
<1%
20°C
$95 交易量
<1%
21°C或更高
$1,213 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from major forecasting centers places Warsaw’s expected high temperature for September 25 in a narrow 13–16 °C range, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 14 °C (34 %) and 15 °C (30 %). Ensemble spreads in the ECMWF and GFS runs show modest uncertainty tied to variable cloud cover, weak southerly flow, and surface pressure gradients that can alter maximum temperatures by 1–2 °C. Historical late-September climatology for the city centers near 16 °C, but current guidance indicates slightly cooler boundary-layer conditions. Traders will watch the next high-resolution model updates and any revised surface observations for shifts that could move the most probable outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$7,544結束日期
2026-09-25市場開放時間
Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from major forecasting centers places Warsaw’s expected high temperature for September 25 in a narrow 13–16 °C range, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 14 °C (34 %) and 15 °C (30 %). Ensemble spreads in the ECMWF and GFS runs show modest uncertainty tied to variable cloud cover, weak southerly flow, and surface pressure gradients that can alter maximum temperatures by 1–2 °C. Historical late-September climatology for the city centers near 16 °C, but current guidance indicates slightly cooler boundary-layer conditions. Traders will watch the next high-resolution model updates and any revised surface observations for shifts that could move the most probable outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$7,544結束日期
2026-09-25市場開放時間
Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent model consensus from major forecasting centers places Warsaw’s expected high temperature for September 25 in a narrow 13–16 °C range, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 14 °C (34 %) and 15 °C (30 %). Ensemble spreads in the ECMWF and GFS runs show modest uncertainty tied to variable cloud cover, weak southerly flow, and surface pressure gradients that can alter maximum temperatures by 1–2 °C. Historical late-September climatology for the city centers near 16 °C, but current guidance indicates slightly cooler boundary-layer conditions. Traders will watch the next high-resolution model updates and any revised surface observations for shifts that could move the most probable outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions