Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean rooted in its Chicago and Cook County base, where the party has consistently delivered large margins in recent cycles. The open-seat dynamic after incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement has not altered this positioning, as his chief of staff Patty Garcia secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the Republican nominee's minimal fundraising. Trader consensus at 95.7% for the Democratic Party aligns with these structural factors and historical voting patterns. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, a sharp national Republican wave, or an independent surge drawing significant crossover support in the final weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$61,640 交易量
$61,640 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
96%
共和黨
4%
$61,640 交易量
$61,640 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$45,541 交易量
96%
共和黨
$16,099 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean rooted in its Chicago and Cook County base, where the party has consistently delivered large margins in recent cycles. The open-seat dynamic after incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement has not altered this positioning, as his chief of staff Patty Garcia secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the Republican nominee's minimal fundraising. Trader consensus at 95.7% for the Democratic Party aligns with these structural factors and historical voting patterns. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, a sharp national Republican wave, or an independent surge drawing significant crossover support in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$61,640結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean rooted in its Chicago and Cook County base, where the party has consistently delivered large margins in recent cycles. The open-seat dynamic after incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement has not altered this positioning, as his chief of staff Patty Garcia secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the Republican nominee's minimal fundraising. Trader consensus at 95.7% for the Democratic Party aligns with these structural factors and historical voting patterns. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, a sharp national Republican wave, or an independent surge drawing significant crossover support in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$61,640結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETIllinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean rooted in its Chicago and Cook County base, where the party has consistently delivered large margins in recent cycles. The open-seat dynamic after incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement has not altered this positioning, as his chief of staff Patty Garcia secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the Republican nominee's minimal fundraising. Trader consensus at 95.7% for the Democratic Party aligns with these structural factors and historical voting patterns. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal affecting the Democratic candidate, a sharp national Republican wave, or an independent surge drawing significant crossover support in the final weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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