A fragile two-week ceasefire suspending US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran was announced on April 8, 2026, amid the ongoing war ignited by joint strikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military, nuclear, and defense infrastructure. Hours later, Israel launched its deadliest strikes on Lebanon, killing over 250 in Hezbollah areas, testing the truce while Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. Israeli officials are preparing attacks on Iranian energy sites, pending US approval if Tehran misses President Trump's reopening deadline. Traders weigh ceasefire durability against proxy escalations, diplomatic signals, and potential for rapid de-escalation or renewed direct conflict.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於最新
$12,788 交易量
2026-04-21
April 14
43%
April 21
66%
$12,788 交易量
April 14
$5,342 交易量
43%
April 21
$7,446 交易量
66%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire suspending US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran was announced on April 8, 2026, amid the ongoing war ignited by joint strikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military, nuclear, and defense infrastructure. Hours later, Israel launched its deadliest strikes on Lebanon, killing over 250 in Hezbollah areas, testing the truce while Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. Israeli officials are preparing attacks on Iranian energy sites, pending US approval if Tehran misses President Trump's reopening deadline. Traders weigh ceasefire durability against proxy escalations, diplomatic signals, and potential for rapid de-escalation or renewed direct conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市場開放時間： Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
交易量
$12,788結束日期
2026-04-21市場開放時間
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire suspending US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran was announced on April 8, 2026, amid the ongoing war ignited by joint strikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military, nuclear, and defense infrastructure. Hours later, Israel launched its deadliest strikes on Lebanon, killing over 250 in Hezbollah areas, testing the truce while Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. Israeli officials are preparing attacks on Iranian energy sites, pending US approval if Tehran misses President Trump's reopening deadline. Traders weigh ceasefire durability against proxy escalations, diplomatic signals, and potential for rapid de-escalation or renewed direct conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$12,788結束日期
2026-04-21市場開放時間
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire suspending US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran was announced on April 8, 2026, amid the ongoing war ignited by joint strikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military, nuclear, and defense infrastructure. Hours later, Israel launched its deadliest strikes on Lebanon, killing over 250 in Hezbollah areas, testing the truce while Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation. Israeli officials are preparing attacks on Iranian energy sites, pending US approval if Tehran misses President Trump's reopening deadline. Traders weigh ceasefire durability against proxy escalations, diplomatic signals, and potential for rapid de-escalation or renewed direct conflict.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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