Post-April 9 polling with 78% voter turnout across Kerala's 140 assembly constituencies, trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors the CPI(M)-led LDF at 51% implied probability to secure a majority government over the INC-led UDF at 47.5%, mirroring mixed pre-poll surveys projecting overlapping 60-70 seats for both fronts amid razor-thin margins. LDF incumbency under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan contends with anti-incumbency on state debt, unemployment, and prices after two terms, offset by welfare schemes and rural mobilization, while UDF capitalizes on 2025 local body gains and opposition unity. NDA (BJP) vote share rise to 12-17% poses spoiler risk in 15-20 battlegrounds like Thrissur and Nemom, but low seat odds reflect polarization. Results on May 4 hinge on narrow swings in key seats.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於CPI(M) 51%
印度國民大會黨（INC） 48%
印度人民黨（BJP） <1%
多元社會黨（BSP） <1%
$288,042 交易量
$288,042 交易量
2026-04-09
CPI(M)
51%
印度國民大會黨（INC）
48%
印度人民黨（BJP）
1%
多元社會黨（BSP）
<1%
印度共產黨（CPI）
<1%
JD(S)
<1%
革命社會黨（RSP）
<1%
KEC(M)
<1%
NCP
<1%
IUML
<1%
CPI(M) 51%
印度國民大會黨（INC） 48%
印度人民黨（BJP） <1%
多元社會黨（BSP） <1%
$288,042 交易量
$288,042 交易量
2026-04-09
CPI(M)
$35,351 交易量
51%
印度國民大會黨（INC）
$34,850 交易量
48%
印度人民黨（BJP）
$61,440 交易量
1%
多元社會黨（BSP）
$13,297 交易量
<1%
印度共產黨（CPI）
$29,084 交易量
<1%
JD(S)
$24,403 交易量
<1%
革命社會黨（RSP）
$14,090 交易量
<1%
KEC(M)
$13,613 交易量
<1%
NCP
$46,975 交易量
<1%
IUML
$14,939 交易量
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Post-April 9 polling with 78% voter turnout across Kerala's 140 assembly constituencies, trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors the CPI(M)-led LDF at 51% implied probability to secure a majority government over the INC-led UDF at 47.5%, mirroring mixed pre-poll surveys projecting overlapping 60-70 seats for both fronts amid razor-thin margins. LDF incumbency under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan contends with anti-incumbency on state debt, unemployment, and prices after two terms, offset by welfare schemes and rural mobilization, while UDF capitalizes on 2025 local body gains and opposition unity. NDA (BJP) vote share rise to 12-17% poses spoiler risk in 15-20 battlegrounds like Thrissur and Nemom, but low seat odds reflect polarization. Results on May 4 hinge on narrow swings in key seats.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
市場開放時間： Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$288,042結束日期
2026-04-09市場開放時間
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Post-April 9 polling with 78% voter turnout across Kerala's 140 assembly constituencies, trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors the CPI(M)-led LDF at 51% implied probability to secure a majority government over the INC-led UDF at 47.5%, mirroring mixed pre-poll surveys projecting overlapping 60-70 seats for both fronts amid razor-thin margins. LDF incumbency under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan contends with anti-incumbency on state debt, unemployment, and prices after two terms, offset by welfare schemes and rural mobilization, while UDF capitalizes on 2025 local body gains and opposition unity. NDA (BJP) vote share rise to 12-17% poses spoiler risk in 15-20 battlegrounds like Thrissur and Nemom, but low seat odds reflect polarization. Results on May 4 hinge on narrow swings in key seats.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
交易量
$288,042結束日期
2026-04-09市場開放時間
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Post-April 9 polling with 78% voter turnout across Kerala's 140 assembly constituencies, trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors the CPI(M)-led LDF at 51% implied probability to secure a majority government over the INC-led UDF at 47.5%, mirroring mixed pre-poll surveys projecting overlapping 60-70 seats for both fronts amid razor-thin margins. LDF incumbency under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan contends with anti-incumbency on state debt, unemployment, and prices after two terms, offset by welfare schemes and rural mobilization, while UDF capitalizes on 2025 local body gains and opposition unity. NDA (BJP) vote share rise to 12-17% poses spoiler risk in 15-20 battlegrounds like Thrissur and Nemom, but low seat odds reflect polarization. Results on May 4 hinge on narrow swings in key seats.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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