Recent meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's overnight minimum on August 31 will settle near 23°C under mostly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and elevated humidity near 80-90%. Persistent cloud cover has limited radiative cooling, while the urban heat island effect and absence of any passing front have prevented sharper drops seen earlier in the month. This aligns with forecast guidance projecting a low of 23°C, driving the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability. A clearer sky regime or stronger northerly flow could allow additional cooling toward 21-22°C, though current conditions and model agreement make such a shift unlikely before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於東京8月31日的最低溫度？
東京8月31日的最低溫度？
23°C 100%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$12,600 交易量
$12,600 交易量
2026-08-31
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
23°C 100%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$12,600 交易量
$12,600 交易量
2026-08-31
20°C or below
$196 交易量
No
21°C
$640 交易量
No
22°C
$456 交易量
No
23°C
$2,562 交易量
Yes
24°C
$5,044 交易量
No
25°C
$1,586 交易量
No
26°C
$228 交易量
No
27°C
$321 交易量
No
28°C
$226 交易量
No
29°C
$73 交易量
No
30°C or higher
$1,266 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's overnight minimum on August 31 will settle near 23°C under mostly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and elevated humidity near 80-90%. Persistent cloud cover has limited radiative cooling, while the urban heat island effect and absence of any passing front have prevented sharper drops seen earlier in the month. This aligns with forecast guidance projecting a low of 23°C, driving the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability. A clearer sky regime or stronger northerly flow could allow additional cooling toward 21-22°C, though current conditions and model agreement make such a shift unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$12,600結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's overnight minimum on August 31 will settle near 23°C under mostly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and elevated humidity near 80-90%. Persistent cloud cover has limited radiative cooling, while the urban heat island effect and absence of any passing front have prevented sharper drops seen earlier in the month. This aligns with forecast guidance projecting a low of 23°C, driving the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability. A clearer sky regime or stronger northerly flow could allow additional cooling toward 21-22°C, though current conditions and model agreement make such a shift unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$12,600結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Recent meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's overnight minimum on August 31 will settle near 23°C under mostly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and elevated humidity near 80-90%. Persistent cloud cover has limited radiative cooling, while the urban heat island effect and absence of any passing front have prevented sharper drops seen earlier in the month. This aligns with forecast guidance projecting a low of 23°C, driving the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability. A clearer sky regime or stronger northerly flow could allow additional cooling toward 21-22°C, though current conditions and model agreement make such a shift unlikely before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions