Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination with 77.7% in the August 4 primary, advancing against a fragmented Democratic field where Jordan Herrera prevailed by a slim margin. The district's R+10 Partisan Voter Index, reinforced by 2025 redistricting that expanded its rural and suburban Republican base across southern Jackson County and central Missouri counties, underpins the 91.5% Republican odds. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with Alford's 71% general election win in 2024. Limited Democratic fundraising and the absence of competitive polling further support trader consensus. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected national partisan shift could narrow the margin before November 3 voting concludes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$49,095 交易量
$49,095 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
92%
民主黨
9%
$49,095 交易量
$49,095 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
$32,123 交易量
92%
民主黨
$16,972 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination with 77.7% in the August 4 primary, advancing against a fragmented Democratic field where Jordan Herrera prevailed by a slim margin. The district's R+10 Partisan Voter Index, reinforced by 2025 redistricting that expanded its rural and suburban Republican base across southern Jackson County and central Missouri counties, underpins the 91.5% Republican odds. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with Alford's 71% general election win in 2024. Limited Democratic fundraising and the absence of competitive polling further support trader consensus. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected national partisan shift could narrow the margin before November 3 voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$49,095結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination with 77.7% in the August 4 primary, advancing against a fragmented Democratic field where Jordan Herrera prevailed by a slim margin. The district's R+10 Partisan Voter Index, reinforced by 2025 redistricting that expanded its rural and suburban Republican base across southern Jackson County and central Missouri counties, underpins the 91.5% Republican odds. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with Alford's 71% general election win in 2024. Limited Democratic fundraising and the absence of competitive polling further support trader consensus. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected national partisan shift could narrow the margin before November 3 voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$49,095結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETIncumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination with 77.7% in the August 4 primary, advancing against a fragmented Democratic field where Jordan Herrera prevailed by a slim margin. The district's R+10 Partisan Voter Index, reinforced by 2025 redistricting that expanded its rural and suburban Republican base across southern Jackson County and central Missouri counties, underpins the 91.5% Republican odds. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with Alford's 71% general election win in 2024. Limited Democratic fundraising and the absence of competitive polling further support trader consensus. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected national partisan shift could narrow the margin before November 3 voting concludes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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