With over 91% of ballots counted by Peru's National Electoral Processes Office (ONPE) as of April 15, Keiko Fujimori leads the first-round presidential vote at 17.0%, ahead of Roberto Sánchez Palomino's 12.1% in a fragmented field of 36 candidates, implying a near-5% margin that traders price above 5% at 79% probability based on her consistent pre-election polling edge and strength in Lima and northern regions. Early counts showed a tighter race against Rafael López Aliaga, but Fujimori's lead widened amid slow tabulation from April 12-13 voting extended by logistical delays and irregularities, prompting fraud claims from rivals. A June 7 runoff looms between the top two, pending final certification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 78.0%
Keiko Fujimori <5% 11.8%
Other <1%
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+ <1%
$285,820 交易量
$285,820 交易量
2026-04-12
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 10-15%
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 5-10%
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga <5%
<1%
Alfonso López Chau 5%+
<1%
Alfonso López Chau <5%
<1%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+
78%
Keiko Fujimori <5%
13%
Jorge Nieto
<1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
<1%
Other
1%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 78.0%
Keiko Fujimori <5% 11.8%
Other <1%
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+ <1%
$285,820 交易量
$285,820 交易量
2026-04-12
Rafael López Aliaga 15%+
$8,336 交易量
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 10-15%
$10,022 交易量
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 5-10%
$6,707 交易量
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga <5%
$11,227 交易量
<1%
Alfonso López Chau 5%+
$6,911 交易量
<1%
Alfonso López Chau <5%
$6,047 交易量
<1%
Keiko Fujimori 5%+
$78,851 交易量
78%
Keiko Fujimori <5%
$105,461 交易量
13%
Jorge Nieto
$6,335 交易量
<1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
$10,618 交易量
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
$4,420 交易量
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
$5,810 交易量
<1%
Other
$25,443 交易量
1%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.With over 91% of ballots counted by Peru's National Electoral Processes Office (ONPE) as of April 15, Keiko Fujimori leads the first-round presidential vote at 17.0%, ahead of Roberto Sánchez Palomino's 12.1% in a fragmented field of 36 candidates, implying a near-5% margin that traders price above 5% at 79% probability based on her consistent pre-election polling edge and strength in Lima and northern regions. Early counts showed a tighter race against Rafael López Aliaga, but Fujimori's lead widened amid slow tabulation from April 12-13 voting extended by logistical delays and irregularities, prompting fraud claims from rivals. A June 7 runoff looms between the top two, pending final certification.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市場開放時間： Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
交易量
$285,820結束日期
2026-04-12市場開放時間
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.With over 91% of ballots counted by Peru's National Electoral Processes Office (ONPE) as of April 15, Keiko Fujimori leads the first-round presidential vote at 17.0%, ahead of Roberto Sánchez Palomino's 12.1% in a fragmented field of 36 candidates, implying a near-5% margin that traders price above 5% at 79% probability based on her consistent pre-election polling edge and strength in Lima and northern regions. Early counts showed a tighter race against Rafael López Aliaga, but Fujimori's lead widened amid slow tabulation from April 12-13 voting extended by logistical delays and irregularities, prompting fraud claims from rivals. A June 7 runoff looms between the top two, pending final certification.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$285,820結束日期
2026-04-12市場開放時間
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With over 91% of ballots counted by Peru's National Electoral Processes Office (ONPE) as of April 15, Keiko Fujimori leads the first-round presidential vote at 17.0%, ahead of Roberto Sánchez Palomino's 12.1% in a fragmented field of 36 candidates, implying a near-5% margin that traders price above 5% at 79% probability based on her consistent pre-election polling edge and strength in Lima and northern regions. Early counts showed a tighter race against Rafael López Aliaga, but Fujimori's lead widened amid slow tabulation from April 12-13 voting extended by logistical delays and irregularities, prompting fraud claims from rivals. A June 7 runoff looms between the top two, pending final certification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions