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政治·全球選舉

祕魯總統選舉第一輪：勝利邊際

Market icon
政治·全球選舉

祕魯總統選舉第一輪：勝利邊際

藤森惠子 5%+ 86.4%

基科·藤森 <5% 13.9%

其他 3.1%

拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加 15%以上 <1%

Polymarket

$292,867 交易量

藤森惠子 5%+ 86.4%

基科·藤森 <5% 13.9%

其他 3.1%

拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加 15%以上 <1%

Polymarket

$292,867 交易量

拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加會以至少15%的優勢贏得2026年秘魯總統選舉第一輪嗎？ icon

拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加 15%以上

$8,336 交易量

<1%

拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加是否會在2026年秘魯總統選舉的第一輪中以10%到15%的差距獲勝？ icon

拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加 10-15%

$10,022 交易量

<1%

拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加會以5%到10%的優勢贏得2026年秘魯總統選舉第一輪投票嗎？ icon

拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加 5-10%

$6,707 交易量

<1%

拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加會以不到5%的優勢贏得2026年秘魯總統選舉第一輪投票嗎？ icon

拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加 <5%

$11,227 交易量

<1%

阿方索·洛佩斯·查烏會在2026年秘魯總統大選首輪中以至少5%的優勢獲勝嗎？ icon

阿方索·洛佩斯·查烏 5%+

$6,911 交易量

<1%

阿方索·洛佩斯·喬將以少於5%的差距贏得2026年秘魯總統選舉第一輪嗎？ icon

阿方索·洛佩斯·喬 <5%

$6,047 交易量

<1%

藤森惠子能否在2026年秘魯總統選舉首輪中以至少5%的優勢獲勝？ icon

藤森惠子 5%+

$81,099 交易量

86%

基科·藤森會以不到5%的差距贏得2026年秘魯總統大選第一輪投票嗎？ icon

基科·藤森 <5%

$109,604 交易量

14%

豪爾赫·涅托會以任何差距贏得2026年秘魯總統大選的第一輪投票嗎？ icon

豪爾赫·涅托

$6,335 交易量

<1%

羅伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米諾會以任何差距贏得2026年秘魯總統選舉的第一輪投票嗎？ icon

羅伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米諾

$10,618 交易量

<1%

沃爾夫岡·格羅佐會以任何差距贏得2026年秘魯總統選舉的第一輪投票嗎？ icon

沃爾夫岡·格羅佐

$4,420 交易量

<1%

卡洛斯·阿爾瓦雷斯會以任何幅度贏得2026年秘魯總統大選的第一輪投票嗎？ icon

卡洛斯·阿爾瓦雷斯

$5,810 交易量

<1%

在2026年秘魯總統選舉的第一輪，會出現其他結果嗎？ icon

其他

$25,730 交易量

3%

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Official ONPE tallies from over 92% of actas contabilizadas confirm Keiko Fujimori's lead in Peru's April 12-13 presidential first-round vote at 17.05%, holding a roughly 5% margin over second-place Roberto Sánchez Palomino (12.05%), with Rafael López Aliaga close behind at 11.86%. Logistical failures delayed polling stations and extended voting into April 13, slowing the count into its fourth day amid unsubstantiated fraud claims, yet Fujimori's edge—consistent since early exit polls—has stabilized, reflecting her pre-election polling strength amid voter concerns over crime and instability. This trader consensus implies high confidence in a 5%+ Fujimori victory margin for runoff qualification on June 7, barring shifts in remaining rural ballots.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$292,867
結束日期
2026-04-12
市場開放時間
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Official ONPE tallies from over 92% of actas contabilizadas confirm Keiko Fujimori's lead in Peru's April 12-13 presidential first-round vote at 17.05%, holding a roughly 5% margin over second-place Roberto Sánchez Palomino (12.05%), with Rafael López Aliaga close behind at 11.86%. Logistical failures delayed polling stations and extended voting into April 13, slowing the count into its fourth day amid unsubstantiated fraud claims, yet Fujimori's edge—consistent since early exit polls—has stabilized, reflecting her pre-election polling strength amid voter concerns over crime and instability. This trader consensus implies high confidence in a 5%+ Fujimori victory margin for runoff qualification on June 7, barring shifts in remaining rural ballots.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$292,867
結束日期
2026-04-12
市場開放時間
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"祕魯總統選舉第一輪：勝利邊際" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "藤森惠子 5%+" at 86%, followed by "基科·藤森 <5%" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "祕魯總統選舉第一輪：勝利邊際" has generated $292.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "祕魯總統選舉第一輪：勝利邊際," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "祕魯總統選舉第一輪：勝利邊際" is "藤森惠子 5%+" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "基科·藤森 <5%" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "祕魯總統選舉第一輪：勝利邊際" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.