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地緣政治·伊朗

伊朗將在4月30日前對哪些國家採取軍事行動？

Market icon
地緣政治·伊朗

伊朗將在4月30日前對哪些國家採取軍事行動？

4月 30

4月 30

$464,214 交易量

2026-04-30
Polymarket

$464,214 交易量

Polymarket

魯韋斯煉油廠

$39,648 交易量

25%

拉斯拉凡工業城

$35,857 交易量

22%

拉斯坦努拉

$37,991 交易量

19%

庫賴斯油田

$14,786 交易量

19%

哈布尚油田／處理綜合體

$46,277 交易量

14%

Al Zour煉油廠

$30,213 交易量

13%

阿布蓋格石油處理設施

$38,341 交易量

11%

Ghawar油田

$12,229 交易量

11%

薩法尼亞油田

$11,512 交易量

10%

利維坦油田

$7,662 交易量

8%

哈里發塔

$8,228 交易量

3%

迪莫納（西蒙·佩雷斯內蓋夫核子研究中心）

$78,280 交易量

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the 2026 US-Israel-Iran war, sparked by American and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure in mid-March, Tehran has retaliated with missile and drone barrages targeting Gulf energy facilities, including Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil processing plant and UAE refineries. A fragile US-brokered ceasefire took hold on April 7, yet sporadic attacks persisted, with Gulf states intercepting projectiles on April 8 and a drone exploding over northern Israel on April 14. Satellite imagery that day revealed Iran excavating to retrieve trapped missile launchers underground. US naval restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz signal blockade risks, while Pakistan-mediated peace talks loom as potential de-escalators before April 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
交易量
$464,214
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the 2026 US-Israel-Iran war, sparked by American and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure in mid-March, Tehran has retaliated with missile and drone barrages targeting Gulf energy facilities, including Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil processing plant and UAE refineries. A fragile US-brokered ceasefire took hold on April 7, yet sporadic attacks persisted, with Gulf states intercepting projectiles on April 8 and a drone exploding over northern Israel on April 14. Satellite imagery that day revealed Iran excavating to retrieve trapped missile launchers underground. US naval restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz signal blockade risks, while Pakistan-mediated peace talks loom as potential de-escalators before April 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
交易量
$464,214
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"伊朗將在4月30日前對哪些國家採取軍事行動？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "米納艾哈邁迪煉油廠" at 100%, followed by "東西管道" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "伊朗將在4月30日前對哪些國家採取軍事行動？" has generated $464.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "伊朗將在4月30日前對哪些國家採取軍事行動？," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "伊朗將在4月30日前對哪些國家採取軍事行動？" is "米納艾哈邁迪煉油廠" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "東西管道" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "伊朗將在4月30日前對哪些國家採取軍事行動？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.