President Trump's April 8 announcement of 50% tariffs on any country supplying military weapons to Iran—issued via Truth Social amid a fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire—has not shifted trader consensus significantly, with "No" holding at 78.5% implied probability. The statement outlines a broad policy without naming or targeting a specific country like Russia or China for their reported arms transfers, failing to meet the market's resolution criteria requiring an announcement of new or increased tariffs explicitly tied to a particular nation's military cooperation with Iran. De-escalation signals, including Trump's praise for Beijing's mediation role and plans to wind down US military efforts post-regime change operations, reduce expectations for targeted tariff actions before the April 17 deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
最新
最新
2026-04-17
是
最新
最新
2026-04-17
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces the creation of any new tariffs or any increase in existing tariffs on a specific country in relation to that country's military cooperation with Iran between market creation and April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Military cooperation refers to a country directly assisting Iran on military or defense matters, including supplying arms, weapons, intelligence, or other military support.
Only tariffs targeting a specific country or set of countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff or other broadly applicable tariff measure imposed on all imports into the United States will not count toward this market’s resolution.
A qualifying tariff or tariff increase must be imposed in response to the affected country's military cooperation with Iran. If that reason is stated in the official announcement of a tariff, it will be sufficient. If the reason is not stated in the official announcement, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine whether the tariff was imposed in response to that country supplying weapons to Iran.
Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariffs go into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's April 8 announcement of 50% tariffs on any country supplying military weapons to Iran—issued via Truth Social amid a fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire—has not shifted trader consensus significantly, with "No" holding at 78.5% implied probability. The statement outlines a broad policy without naming or targeting a specific country like Russia or China for their reported arms transfers, failing to meet the market's resolution criteria requiring an announcement of new or increased tariffs explicitly tied to a particular nation's military cooperation with Iran. De-escalation signals, including Trump's praise for Beijing's mediation role and plans to wind down US military efforts post-regime change operations, reduce expectations for targeted tariff actions before the April 17 deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces the creation of any new tariffs or any increase in existing tariffs on a specific country in relation to that country's military cooperation with Iran between market creation and April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Military cooperation refers to a country directly assisting Iran on military or defense matters, including supplying arms, weapons, intelligence, or other military support.
Only tariffs targeting a specific country or set of countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff or other broadly applicable tariff measure imposed on all imports into the United States will not count toward this market’s resolution.
A qualifying tariff or tariff increase must be imposed in response to the affected country's military cooperation with Iran. If that reason is stated in the official announcement of a tariff, it will be sufficient. If the reason is not stated in the official announcement, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine whether the tariff was imposed in response to that country supplying weapons to Iran.
Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariffs go into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Military cooperation refers to a country directly assisting Iran on military or defense matters, including supplying arms, weapons, intelligence, or other military support.
Only tariffs targeting a specific country or set of countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff or other broadly applicable tariff measure imposed on all imports into the United States will not count toward this market’s resolution.
A qualifying tariff or tariff increase must be imposed in response to the affected country's military cooperation with Iran. If that reason is stated in the official announcement of a tariff, it will be sufficient. If the reason is not stated in the official announcement, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine whether the tariff was imposed in response to that country supplying weapons to Iran.
Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariffs go into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 8, 2026, 5:45 PM ET
交易量
$3,113結束日期
2026-04-17市場開放時間
Apr 8, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces the creation of any new tariffs or any increase in existing tariffs on a specific country in relation to that country's military cooperation with Iran between market creation and April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Military cooperation refers to a country directly assisting Iran on military or defense matters, including supplying arms, weapons, intelligence, or other military support.
Only tariffs targeting a specific country or set of countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff or other broadly applicable tariff measure imposed on all imports into the United States will not count toward this market’s resolution.
A qualifying tariff or tariff increase must be imposed in response to the affected country's military cooperation with Iran. If that reason is stated in the official announcement of a tariff, it will be sufficient. If the reason is not stated in the official announcement, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine whether the tariff was imposed in response to that country supplying weapons to Iran.
Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariffs go into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's April 8 announcement of 50% tariffs on any country supplying military weapons to Iran—issued via Truth Social amid a fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire—has not shifted trader consensus significantly, with "No" holding at 78.5% implied probability. The statement outlines a broad policy without naming or targeting a specific country like Russia or China for their reported arms transfers, failing to meet the market's resolution criteria requiring an announcement of new or increased tariffs explicitly tied to a particular nation's military cooperation with Iran. De-escalation signals, including Trump's praise for Beijing's mediation role and plans to wind down US military efforts post-regime change operations, reduce expectations for targeted tariff actions before the April 17 deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces the creation of any new tariffs or any increase in existing tariffs on a specific country in relation to that country's military cooperation with Iran between market creation and April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Military cooperation refers to a country directly assisting Iran on military or defense matters, including supplying arms, weapons, intelligence, or other military support.
Only tariffs targeting a specific country or set of countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff or other broadly applicable tariff measure imposed on all imports into the United States will not count toward this market’s resolution.
A qualifying tariff or tariff increase must be imposed in response to the affected country's military cooperation with Iran. If that reason is stated in the official announcement of a tariff, it will be sufficient. If the reason is not stated in the official announcement, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine whether the tariff was imposed in response to that country supplying weapons to Iran.
Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariffs go into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Military cooperation refers to a country directly assisting Iran on military or defense matters, including supplying arms, weapons, intelligence, or other military support.
Only tariffs targeting a specific country or set of countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff or other broadly applicable tariff measure imposed on all imports into the United States will not count toward this market’s resolution.
A qualifying tariff or tariff increase must be imposed in response to the affected country's military cooperation with Iran. If that reason is stated in the official announcement of a tariff, it will be sufficient. If the reason is not stated in the official announcement, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine whether the tariff was imposed in response to that country supplying weapons to Iran.
Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariffs go into effect.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$3,113結束日期
2026-04-17市場開放時間
Apr 8, 2026, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's April 8 announcement of 50% tariffs on any country supplying military weapons to Iran—issued via Truth Social amid a fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire—has not shifted trader consensus significantly, with "No" holding at 78.5% implied probability. The statement outlines a broad policy without naming or targeting a specific country like Russia or China for their reported arms transfers, failing to meet the market's resolution criteria requiring an announcement of new or increased tariffs explicitly tied to a particular nation's military cooperation with Iran. De-escalation signals, including Trump's praise for Beijing's mediation role and plans to wind down US military efforts post-regime change operations, reduce expectations for targeted tariff actions before the April 17 deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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