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世界·全球選舉

哪些候選人將晉級巴西總統決選？

Market icon
世界·全球選舉

哪些候選人將晉級巴西總統決選？

$271,412 交易量

2026-10-04
Polymarket

$271,412 交易量

Polymarket

弗拉維奧·博索納羅

$15,796 交易量

88%

路易斯·伊納西奧·魯拉·達席爾瓦

$112,249 交易量

79%

費爾南多·哈達德

$47,542 交易量

18%

塔爾西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯

$65,801 交易量

5%

蜜雪兒·波索納羅

$20,563 交易量

4%

賈伊爾·博爾索納羅

$9,461 交易量

3%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha, Futura Inteligência, and MDA conducted in early-to-mid April 2026 show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading the first round with 39-40% support, closely trailed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 30-37%, while no other candidates like Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, or Tarcísio de Freitas exceed 6%. This tightening race, with Flávio gaining ground amid the Bolsonaro family's enduring base, positions both as frontrunners to advance to the October 25 runoff if no one secures an outright majority on October 4. The April 4 electoral resignation deadline has solidified the field, with official candidate registrations due by August 15 and campaigning starting August 16; economic indicators and regional alliances could further shift polling averages in this closely contested scenario.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$271,412
結束日期
2026-10-04
市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha, Futura Inteligência, and MDA conducted in early-to-mid April 2026 show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading the first round with 39-40% support, closely trailed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 30-37%, while no other candidates like Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, or Tarcísio de Freitas exceed 6%. This tightening race, with Flávio gaining ground amid the Bolsonaro family's enduring base, positions both as frontrunners to advance to the October 25 runoff if no one secures an outright majority on October 4. The April 4 electoral resignation deadline has solidified the field, with official candidate registrations due by August 15 and campaigning starting August 16; economic indicators and regional alliances could further shift polling averages in this closely contested scenario.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$271,412
結束日期
2026-10-04
市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"哪些候選人將晉級巴西總統決選？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "弗拉維奧·博索納羅" at 88%, followed by "路易斯·伊納西奧·魯拉·達席爾瓦" at 79%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 88¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "哪些候選人將晉級巴西總統決選？" has generated $271.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "哪些候選人將晉級巴西總統決選？," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "哪些候選人將晉級巴西總統決選？" is "弗拉維奧·博索納羅" at 88%, meaning the market assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "路易斯·伊納西奧·魯拉·達席爾瓦" at 79%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "哪些候選人將晉級巴西總統決選？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.