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世界·巴西

巴西总统选举

Market icon
世界·巴西

巴西总统选举

Flávio Bolsonaro 39.6%

路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦 40%

Renan Santos 6.3%

费尔南多·哈达德 4.5%

Polymarket

$52,062,535 交易量

Flávio Bolsonaro 39.6%

路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦 40%

Renan Santos 6.3%

费尔南多·哈达德 4.5%

Polymarket

$52,062,535 交易量

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? icon

Flávio Bolsonaro

$4,104,481 交易量

40%

卢拉会在2026年的巴西总统选举中获胜吗？ icon

路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦

$4,563,009 交易量

40%

Renan Santos 将在2026年巴西总统大选中获胜吗？ icon

Renan Santos

$4,056,727 交易量

6%

费尔南多·哈达德会赢得2026年巴西总统大选吗？ icon

费尔南多·哈达德

$3,522,012 交易量

5%

卡米洛·桑塔纳会赢得2026年巴西总统选举吗？ icon

卡米洛·桑塔纳

$1,218,637 交易量

3%

罗纳尔多·卡亚多会赢得2026年巴西总统选举吗？ icon

罗纳尔多·卡亚多

$1,690,312 交易量

2%

罗梅乌·泽马会赢得2026年巴西总统选举吗？ icon

罗梅乌·泽马

$660,898 交易量

1%

问题：贾伊尔·博尔索纳罗会在2026年巴西总统大选中获胜吗？ icon

分组项标题：贾伊尔·博尔索纳罗

$2,760,339 交易量

1%

米歇尔·博索纳罗会赢得2026年巴西总统大选吗？ icon

米歇尔·博索纳罗

$4,197,581 交易量

1%

杰拉尔多·阿尔克明会赢得2026年巴西总统选举吗？ icon

杰拉尔多·阿尔克明

$1,015,237 交易量

1%

塔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯会赢得2026年巴西总统大选吗？ icon

塔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯

$7,671,262 交易量

<1%

问题：Eduardo Bolsonaro会在2026年巴西总统大选中获胜吗？ icon

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$6,607,589 交易量

<1%

阿尔多·雷贝洛会赢得2026年巴西总统大选吗？ icon

阿尔多·雷贝洛

$1,025,892 交易量

<1%

卡洛斯·罗伯托·马萨·朱尼奥会在2026年巴西总统大选中获胜吗？ icon

小老鼠朱尼奥

$6,242,746 交易量

<1%

爱德华多·莱特会赢得2026年巴西总统选举吗？ icon

爱德华多·莱特

$2,726,361 交易量

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha, Quaest, Futura, and others in early April 2026 show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead of 2–9 points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with both around 35–40% amid high undecided rates of 10–19%, driving trader consensus to a virtual deadlock at 39.6% for Flávio and 39.5% for Lula. This tightness reflects a polarized electorate, Lula's incumbency advantages offset by his age and rejection rates above 40%, and Flávio consolidating right-wing support as Jair Bolsonaro's endorsed successor despite family legal challenges. Other candidates trail far behind, underscoring a likely two-way race headed to an October 4 first-round vote and potential runoff. Separation could arise from economic indicators, Supreme Federal Court rulings on eligibility, vice presidential announcements by June party conventions, or shifts in swing state polling.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$52,062,535
结束日期
2026-10-04
市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha, Quaest, Futura, and others in early April 2026 show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead of 2–9 points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with both around 35–40% amid high undecided rates of 10–19%, driving trader consensus to a virtual deadlock at 39.6% for Flávio and 39.5% for Lula. This tightness reflects a polarized electorate, Lula's incumbency advantages offset by his age and rejection rates above 40%, and Flávio consolidating right-wing support as Jair Bolsonaro's endorsed successor despite family legal challenges. Other candidates trail far behind, underscoring a likely two-way race headed to an October 4 first-round vote and potential runoff. Separation could arise from economic indicators, Supreme Federal Court rulings on eligibility, vice presidential announcements by June party conventions, or shifts in swing state polling.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$52,062,535
结束日期
2026-10-04
市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"巴西总统选举"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 15 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"Flávio Bolsonaro"，概率为 40%，其次是"路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦"，概率为 40%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 40¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 40%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"巴西总统选举"已产生 $52.1 million 的总交易量（自Sep 18, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"巴西总统选举"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 15 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"巴西总统选举"的当前领先者是"Flávio Bolsonaro"，概率为 40%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 40%。紧随其后的结果是"路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦"，概率为 40%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"巴西总统选举"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。