Fernando Dias da Costa leads trader sentiment in this fragmented field due to his strong performance and opposition backing in the annulled 2025 vote, where he positioned himself as a challenger to the prior regime amid disputes over results and alliances with parties like the PRS and PAIGC-linked groups. The December 2026 election follows a November 2025 military coup that ousted incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló before official tallies, installed a transitional junta under Horta Inta-A Na Man, and reset the timeline for new legislative and presidential contests. Embaló’s lower odds reflect the impact of that power shift and questions over his re-election path, while the long list of minor candidates underscores persistent fragmentation, ethnic and party-based vote splits, and limited consolidation behind any single contender ahead of the vote.