Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to a peak of 91–93°F in Miami on August 22 under mostly sunny conditions with a 30% afternoon thunderstorm chance, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting on the 92–93°F bin. Persistent subtropical ridging and above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Atlantic have sustained elevated readings after Miami’s rare 100°F observation on August 19, while the typical August climatological maximum near 89–91°F provides context for the elevated but not extreme odds on 94–95°F. Sea-breeze timing and convective initiation remain the key variables that could shave a degree or two from the daily high, keeping lower bins at modest probabilities.