Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Shanghai high of 18°C at 31.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 19°C at 22%, reflecting forecast model uncertainty amid an unusually warm March. Official China Meteorological Administration guidance and global models like ECMWF and GFS project afternoon peaks in the 17–20°C range on March 29, driven by persistent high-pressure ridging funneling mild southerly airflow over eastern China, following record March warmth including 28.5°C earlier this month. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon cloud cover suppressing peaks to 17–18°C versus clearer skies allowing 19–20°C, with historical March averages around 13°C underscoring the anomalous conditions. New model runs expected within 24 hours could refine these odds as resolution nears.