Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Chongqing's highest temperature on March 29, with 19°C leading at 22% implied probability amid spring-like conditions averaging 18–20°C historically for late March. Recent China Meteorological Administration updates and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS indicate a daytime high cluster of 18–21°C, driven by mild southerly winds and partial cloud cover limiting extremes, following a stable weather pattern after early-month rains dissipated. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon clearing boosting 20–21°C outcomes versus lingering haze favoring 18–19°C; new 12-hourly observational data and model refreshes expected by evening could sharpen resolution as diurnal heating peaks around 2–4 p.m. local time.