Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 21°C (29%) and 22°C (27%) for Chongqing's March 26 high temperature, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which project peaks of 20-23°C amid mild southerly flows and partial cloud cover. These leading outcomes edge out 20°C due to Chongqing's urban heat island effect amplifying diurnal warming—historical March data from the China Meteorological Administration shows average highs near 19°C, but recent model runs account for 2-3°C boosts from low-level moisture advection and reduced nocturnal cooling. Divergence stems from uncertainty in afternoon convective activity; clearer skies favor 22°C, while scattered showers could cap it at 21°C, with lower probabilities reflecting rare extremes beyond climatological norms.