**Democratic Senate incumbents face minimal primary opposition heading into the 2026 cycle.** With 13 Democratic seats up for election and several open due to retirements (including Gary Peters in Michigan, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, and Tina Smith in Minnesota), the handful of sitting senators seeking renomination—such as Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Cory Booker in New Jersey, John Hickenlooper in Colorado, and Jeff Merkley in Oregon—have drawn only minor or no challengers as of early August 2026. Ballot access records and primary filings show no competitive contests that threaten incumbents, keeping the implied probability of zero losses at 80 percent. Trader sentiment reflects the absence of notable polling shifts, endorsements for challengers, or campaign developments that would signal vulnerability. Any late surges by progressive or outsider candidates could still alter outcomes before remaining primaries conclude, but current conditions point to all incumbents advancing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0 80%
1 19.1%
2 1.3%
4 1.1%
$11,139 交易量
$11,139 交易量
0
80%
1
19%
2
1%
3
1%
4
1%
>4
<1%
0 80%
1 19.1%
2 1.3%
4 1.1%
$11,139 交易量
$11,139 交易量
0
$5,983 交易量
80%
1
$1,712 交易量
19%
2
$1,457 交易量
1%
3
$684 交易量
1%
4
$712 交易量
1%
>4
$590 交易量
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Democratic Senate incumbents face minimal primary opposition heading into the 2026 cycle.** With 13 Democratic seats up for election and several open due to retirements (including Gary Peters in Michigan, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, and Tina Smith in Minnesota), the handful of sitting senators seeking renomination—such as Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Cory Booker in New Jersey, John Hickenlooper in Colorado, and Jeff Merkley in Oregon—have drawn only minor or no challengers as of early August 2026. Ballot access records and primary filings show no competitive contests that threaten incumbents, keeping the implied probability of zero losses at 80 percent. Trader sentiment reflects the absence of notable polling shifts, endorsements for challengers, or campaign developments that would signal vulnerability. Any late surges by progressive or outsider candidates could still alter outcomes before remaining primaries conclude, but current conditions point to all incumbents advancing.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
市场开放时间： Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
交易量
$11,139市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Democratic Senate incumbents face minimal primary opposition heading into the 2026 cycle.** With 13 Democratic seats up for election and several open due to retirements (including Gary Peters in Michigan, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, and Tina Smith in Minnesota), the handful of sitting senators seeking renomination—such as Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Cory Booker in New Jersey, John Hickenlooper in Colorado, and Jeff Merkley in Oregon—have drawn only minor or no challengers as of early August 2026. Ballot access records and primary filings show no competitive contests that threaten incumbents, keeping the implied probability of zero losses at 80 percent. Trader sentiment reflects the absence of notable polling shifts, endorsements for challengers, or campaign developments that would signal vulnerability. Any late surges by progressive or outsider candidates could still alter outcomes before remaining primaries conclude, but current conditions point to all incumbents advancing.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
交易量
$11,139市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic Senate incumbents face minimal primary opposition heading into the 2026 cycle.** With 13 Democratic seats up for election and several open due to retirements (including Gary Peters in Michigan, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, and Tina Smith in Minnesota), the handful of sitting senators seeking renomination—such as Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Cory Booker in New Jersey, John Hickenlooper in Colorado, and Jeff Merkley in Oregon—have drawn only minor or no challengers as of early August 2026. Ballot access records and primary filings show no competitive contests that threaten incumbents, keeping the implied probability of zero losses at 80 percent. Trader sentiment reflects the absence of notable polling shifts, endorsements for challengers, or campaign developments that would signal vulnerability. Any late surges by progressive or outsider candidates could still alter outcomes before remaining primaries conclude, but current conditions point to all incumbents advancing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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