Recent polls showing Michelle Stratton leading Raja Krishnamoorthi by 7-10 points in the Illinois Democratic Senate primary have solidified trader consensus around a 6-9% margin of victory for Stratton at nearly 100% implied probability. Stratton's advantages stem from strong endorsements by state party leaders, superior fundraising totaling over $1.2 million versus Krishnamoorthi's $450,000, and resonance with the district's progressive base on issues like education funding and criminal justice reform. Voter registration deadlines have passed, limiting late shifts, while historical primaries in similar districts favor established incumbents or well-backed challengers like Stratton. Realistic challenges include a Krishnamoorthi turnout surge among South Asian communities or a major scandal emerging before March 19 voting day, though evidence suggests low likelihood.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于斯特拉顿 6–9% 99.7%
其他 1.2%
Krishnamoorthi <3% <1%
克里希纳穆尔西 3–6% <1%
$22,537 交易量
$22,537 交易量
Mar 17, 2026
Krishnamoorthi 9%+
<1%
克里希纳穆尔蒂 6–9%
<1%
克里希纳穆尔西 3–6%
1%
Krishnamoorthi <3%
1%
斯特拉顿 <3%
<1%
斯特拉顿3–6%
<1%
斯特拉顿 6–9%
100%
斯特拉顿9%+
1%
其他
1%
斯特拉顿 6–9% 99.7%
其他 1.2%
Krishnamoorthi <3% <1%
克里希纳穆尔西 3–6% <1%
$22,537 交易量
$22,537 交易量
Mar 17, 2026
Krishnamoorthi 9%+
$2,784 交易量
<1%
克里希纳穆尔蒂 6–9%
$1,121 交易量
<1%
克里希纳穆尔西 3–6%
$1,501 交易量
1%
Krishnamoorthi <3%
$1,076 交易量
1%
斯特拉顿 <3%
$3,148 交易量
<1%
斯特拉顿3–6%
$4,568 交易量
<1%
斯特拉顿 6–9%
$4,906 交易量
100%
斯特拉顿9%+
$1,983 交易量
1%
其他
$1,450 交易量
1%
The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市场开放时间： Mar 17, 2026, 6:52 PM ET
交易量
$22,537结束日期
Mar 17, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 6:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$22,537结束日期
Mar 17, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 6:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls showing Michelle Stratton leading Raja Krishnamoorthi by 7-10 points in the Illinois Democratic Senate primary have solidified trader consensus around a 6-9% margin of victory for Stratton at nearly 100% implied probability. Stratton's advantages stem from strong endorsements by state party leaders, superior fundraising totaling over $1.2 million versus Krishnamoorthi's $450,000, and resonance with the district's progressive base on issues like education funding and criminal justice reform. Voter registration deadlines have passed, limiting late shifts, while historical primaries in similar districts favor established incumbents or well-backed challengers like Stratton. Realistic challenges include a Krishnamoorthi turnout surge among South Asian communities or a major scandal emerging before March 19 voting day, though evidence suggests low likelihood.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题