Illinois's solidly Democratic political environment and the March 2026 primary results underpin the market's assessment of Juliana Stratton as the heavy favorite in the open U.S. Senate race. Stratton, the sitting lieutenant governor backed by Governor JB Pritzker and the state party apparatus, secured the Democratic nomination over several challengers in a contest that highlighted her statewide profile and organizational strength. Don Tracy, the Republican nominee and former state party chair, faces structural headwinds in a state where the party has not won a Senate contest since 2010 and where race ratings classify the seat as safe Democratic. Trader consensus assigns Stratton a 94 percent implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for open seats in deep-blue states. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include late-cycle scandals, health events, or abrupt national political realignments that alter turnout or voter sentiment before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$25,497 交易量
$25,497 交易量
2026-11-03
朱莉安娜·斯特拉顿（民主党）
94%
唐·特雷西（共和党）
6%
$25,497 交易量
$25,497 交易量
2026-11-03
朱莉安娜·斯特拉顿（民主党）
$12,850 交易量
94%
唐·特雷西（共和党）
$12,647 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois's solidly Democratic political environment and the March 2026 primary results underpin the market's assessment of Juliana Stratton as the heavy favorite in the open U.S. Senate race. Stratton, the sitting lieutenant governor backed by Governor JB Pritzker and the state party apparatus, secured the Democratic nomination over several challengers in a contest that highlighted her statewide profile and organizational strength. Don Tracy, the Republican nominee and former state party chair, faces structural headwinds in a state where the party has not won a Senate contest since 2010 and where race ratings classify the seat as safe Democratic. Trader consensus assigns Stratton a 94 percent implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for open seats in deep-blue states. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include late-cycle scandals, health events, or abrupt national political realignments that alter turnout or voter sentiment before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$25,497结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois's solidly Democratic political environment and the March 2026 primary results underpin the market's assessment of Juliana Stratton as the heavy favorite in the open U.S. Senate race. Stratton, the sitting lieutenant governor backed by Governor JB Pritzker and the state party apparatus, secured the Democratic nomination over several challengers in a contest that highlighted her statewide profile and organizational strength. Don Tracy, the Republican nominee and former state party chair, faces structural headwinds in a state where the party has not won a Senate contest since 2010 and where race ratings classify the seat as safe Democratic. Trader consensus assigns Stratton a 94 percent implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for open seats in deep-blue states. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include late-cycle scandals, health events, or abrupt national political realignments that alter turnout or voter sentiment before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$25,497结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois's solidly Democratic political environment and the March 2026 primary results underpin the market's assessment of Juliana Stratton as the heavy favorite in the open U.S. Senate race. Stratton, the sitting lieutenant governor backed by Governor JB Pritzker and the state party apparatus, secured the Democratic nomination over several challengers in a contest that highlighted her statewide profile and organizational strength. Don Tracy, the Republican nominee and former state party chair, faces structural headwinds in a state where the party has not won a Senate contest since 2010 and where race ratings classify the seat as safe Democratic. Trader consensus assigns Stratton a 94 percent implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for open seats in deep-blue states. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include late-cycle scandals, health events, or abrupt national political realignments that alter turnout or voter sentiment before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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