Illinois's deep Democratic lean and the March 2026 primaries shape trader consensus on the open U.S. Senate seat. Juliana Stratton secured the Democratic nomination with strong support from Governor J.B. Pritzker and outperformed rivals in fundraising and organization, while Don Tracy won the Republican primary in a state that has not elected a GOP senator since 2010. The general election on November 3, 2026, features limited structural paths for the Republican nominee absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions. High implied probabilities reflect these baseline factors, though late-campaign events, candidate health developments, or unexpected turnout surges could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$25,553 交易量
$25,553 交易量
2026-11-03
朱莉安娜·斯特拉顿（民主党）
95%
唐·特雷西（共和党）
5%
$25,553 交易量
$25,553 交易量
2026-11-03
朱莉安娜·斯特拉顿（民主党）
$12,904 交易量
95%
唐·特雷西（共和党）
$12,649 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois's deep Democratic lean and the March 2026 primaries shape trader consensus on the open U.S. Senate seat. Juliana Stratton secured the Democratic nomination with strong support from Governor J.B. Pritzker and outperformed rivals in fundraising and organization, while Don Tracy won the Republican primary in a state that has not elected a GOP senator since 2010. The general election on November 3, 2026, features limited structural paths for the Republican nominee absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions. High implied probabilities reflect these baseline factors, though late-campaign events, candidate health developments, or unexpected turnout surges could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$25,553结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois's deep Democratic lean and the March 2026 primaries shape trader consensus on the open U.S. Senate seat. Juliana Stratton secured the Democratic nomination with strong support from Governor J.B. Pritzker and outperformed rivals in fundraising and organization, while Don Tracy won the Republican primary in a state that has not elected a GOP senator since 2010. The general election on November 3, 2026, features limited structural paths for the Republican nominee absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions. High implied probabilities reflect these baseline factors, though late-campaign events, candidate health developments, or unexpected turnout surges could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$25,553结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois's deep Democratic lean and the March 2026 primaries shape trader consensus on the open U.S. Senate seat. Juliana Stratton secured the Democratic nomination with strong support from Governor J.B. Pritzker and outperformed rivals in fundraising and organization, while Don Tracy won the Republican primary in a state that has not elected a GOP senator since 2010. The general election on November 3, 2026, features limited structural paths for the Republican nominee absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions. High implied probabilities reflect these baseline factors, though late-campaign events, candidate health developments, or unexpected turnout surges could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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