Amid the 2026 Iran war sparked by US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, Iranian-backed militias from Iraq launched drone attacks on Gulf states including Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait around April 12-13, with Bahrain intercepting seven Iranian drones and summoning Iraq's envoy. Hezbollah resumed rocket barrages and mortar strikes on northern Israel starting April 8, citing ceasefire violations over Lebanon operations. The US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports April 13 after stalled Islamabad talks demanding nuclear curbs and Hormuz access. Iran restricts Strait of Hormuz traffic to pressure negotiations. Mediators plan a second round before the April 21 ceasefire deadline, weighing escalation risks against Israel, US assets, or Gulf targets by April 30.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$4,086,433 交易量
2026-04-30
伊拉克
100%
巴林
46%
卡塔尔
20%
约旦
7%
黎巴嫩
4%
叙利亚
4%
塞浦路斯
3%
阿曼
3%
阿塞拜疆
3%
阿富汗
3%
土耳其
2%
巴基斯坦
2%
也门
2%
格鲁吉亚
2%
英国
1%
波兰
1%
意大利
1%
亚美尼亚
1%
乌克兰
1%
印度
1%
法国
1%
德国
1%
匈牙利
1%
西班牙
1%
$4,086,433 交易量
伊拉克
$2,029,115 交易量
100%
巴林
$112,348 交易量
46%
卡塔尔
$80,796 交易量
20%
约旦
$11,923 交易量
7%
黎巴嫩
$42,098 交易量
4%
叙利亚
$12,372 交易量
4%
塞浦路斯
$18,673 交易量
3%
阿曼
$63,988 交易量
3%
阿塞拜疆
$38,473 交易量
3%
阿富汗
$1,729 交易量
3%
土耳其
$19,922 交易量
2%
巴基斯坦
$13,877 交易量
2%
也门
$8,383 交易量
2%
格鲁吉亚
$7,518 交易量
2%
英国
$25,205 交易量
1%
波兰
$35,880 交易量
1%
意大利
$1,386 交易量
1%
亚美尼亚
$3,570 交易量
1%
乌克兰
$14,548 交易量
1%
印度
$19,286 交易量
1%
法国
$31,222 交易量
1%
德国
$18,523 交易量
1%
匈牙利
$14,579 交易量
1%
西班牙
$7,385 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the 2026 Iran war sparked by US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, Iranian-backed militias from Iraq launched drone attacks on Gulf states including Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait around April 12-13, with Bahrain intercepting seven Iranian drones and summoning Iraq's envoy. Hezbollah resumed rocket barrages and mortar strikes on northern Israel starting April 8, citing ceasefire violations over Lebanon operations. The US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports April 13 after stalled Islamabad talks demanding nuclear curbs and Hormuz access. Iran restricts Strait of Hormuz traffic to pressure negotiations. Mediators plan a second round before the April 21 ceasefire deadline, weighing escalation risks against Israel, US assets, or Gulf targets by April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
交易量
$4,086,433结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 是
有争议
已提议结果: 是
有争议
最终审核
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the 2026 Iran war sparked by US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, Iranian-backed militias from Iraq launched drone attacks on Gulf states including Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait around April 12-13, with Bahrain intercepting seven Iranian drones and summoning Iraq's envoy. Hezbollah resumed rocket barrages and mortar strikes on northern Israel starting April 8, citing ceasefire violations over Lebanon operations. The US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports April 13 after stalled Islamabad talks demanding nuclear curbs and Hormuz access. Iran restricts Strait of Hormuz traffic to pressure negotiations. Mediators plan a second round before the April 21 ceasefire deadline, weighing escalation risks against Israel, US assets, or Gulf targets by April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$4,086,433结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 是
有争议
已提议结果: 是
有争议
最终审核
Amid the 2026 Iran war sparked by US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, Iranian-backed militias from Iraq launched drone attacks on Gulf states including Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait around April 12-13, with Bahrain intercepting seven Iranian drones and summoning Iraq's envoy. Hezbollah resumed rocket barrages and mortar strikes on northern Israel starting April 8, citing ceasefire violations over Lebanon operations. The US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports April 13 after stalled Islamabad talks demanding nuclear curbs and Hormuz access. Iran restricts Strait of Hormuz traffic to pressure negotiations. Mediators plan a second round before the April 21 ceasefire deadline, weighing escalation risks against Israel, US assets, or Gulf targets by April 30.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题