Iran has significantly expanded uranium enrichment to near-weapons-grade levels in recent years but has shown no verified preparations, test-site activity, or official signals pointing to an underground nuclear detonation before 2027. Ongoing IAEA monitoring, U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments, and the aftermath of 2025 regional tensions have reinforced a pattern of strategic restraint, with Tehran prioritizing sanctions relief talks and avoiding escalation that could trigger broader military responses. Trader consensus at 94.5% for “No” reflects this absence of imminent indicators alongside historical precedent of capability without testing, though a sudden policy shift or undetected breakthrough remains possible within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$228,771 交易量
$228,771 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$228,771 交易量
$228,771 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran has significantly expanded uranium enrichment to near-weapons-grade levels in recent years but has shown no verified preparations, test-site activity, or official signals pointing to an underground nuclear detonation before 2027. Ongoing IAEA monitoring, U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments, and the aftermath of 2025 regional tensions have reinforced a pattern of strategic restraint, with Tehran prioritizing sanctions relief talks and avoiding escalation that could trigger broader military responses. Trader consensus at 94.5% for “No” reflects this absence of imminent indicators alongside historical precedent of capability without testing, though a sudden policy shift or undetected breakthrough remains possible within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$228,771结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran has significantly expanded uranium enrichment to near-weapons-grade levels in recent years but has shown no verified preparations, test-site activity, or official signals pointing to an underground nuclear detonation before 2027. Ongoing IAEA monitoring, U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments, and the aftermath of 2025 regional tensions have reinforced a pattern of strategic restraint, with Tehran prioritizing sanctions relief talks and avoiding escalation that could trigger broader military responses. Trader consensus at 94.5% for “No” reflects this absence of imminent indicators alongside historical precedent of capability without testing, though a sudden policy shift or undetected breakthrough remains possible within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$228,771结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran has significantly expanded uranium enrichment to near-weapons-grade levels in recent years but has shown no verified preparations, test-site activity, or official signals pointing to an underground nuclear detonation before 2027. Ongoing IAEA monitoring, U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments, and the aftermath of 2025 regional tensions have reinforced a pattern of strategic restraint, with Tehran prioritizing sanctions relief talks and avoiding escalation that could trigger broader military responses. Trader consensus at 94.5% for “No” reflects this absence of imminent indicators alongside historical precedent of capability without testing, though a sudden policy shift or undetected breakthrough remains possible within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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