Current National Weather Service and GFS model guidance point to an overnight low near 56°F in Chicago on September 26, supported by persistent easterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and dew points in the low 50s that limit radiational cooling. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 54.4°F for the date. Trader consensus on the 45°F-or-below and 64°F-or-higher outcomes at equal 50% implied probability reflects model sensitivity to small changes in cloud thickness and wind direction, which could either enhance cooling or maintain mild conditions. Updated forecast runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月26日芝加哥最低气温？
9月26日芝加哥最低气温？
64华氏度或更高 99%
52-53°F 40%
54-55°F 40%
46-47华氏度 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-26
45华氏度或以下
<1%
46-47华氏度
39%
48-49华氏度
39%
50-51°F
39%
52-53°F
40%
54-55°F
40%
56-57°F
39%
58-59°F
39%
60-61°F
39%
62-63°F
39%
64华氏度或更高
99%
64华氏度或更高 99%
52-53°F 40%
54-55°F 40%
46-47华氏度 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-26
45华氏度或以下
$0 交易量
<1%
46-47华氏度
$0 交易量
39%
48-49华氏度
$0 交易量
39%
50-51°F
$0 交易量
39%
52-53°F
$0 交易量
40%
54-55°F
$0 交易量
40%
56-57°F
$0 交易量
39%
58-59°F
$0 交易量
39%
60-61°F
$0 交易量
39%
62-63°F
$0 交易量
39%
64华氏度或更高
$0 交易量
99%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and GFS model guidance point to an overnight low near 56°F in Chicago on September 26, supported by persistent easterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and dew points in the low 50s that limit radiational cooling. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 54.4°F for the date. Trader consensus on the 45°F-or-below and 64°F-or-higher outcomes at equal 50% implied probability reflects model sensitivity to small changes in cloud thickness and wind direction, which could either enhance cooling or maintain mild conditions. Updated forecast runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 24, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-26市场开放时间
Sep 24, 2026, 3:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and GFS model guidance point to an overnight low near 56°F in Chicago on September 26, supported by persistent easterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and dew points in the low 50s that limit radiational cooling. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 54.4°F for the date. Trader consensus on the 45°F-or-below and 64°F-or-higher outcomes at equal 50% implied probability reflects model sensitivity to small changes in cloud thickness and wind direction, which could either enhance cooling or maintain mild conditions. Updated forecast runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-26市场开放时间
Sep 24, 2026, 3:29 AM ETCurrent National Weather Service and GFS model guidance point to an overnight low near 56°F in Chicago on September 26, supported by persistent easterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and dew points in the low 50s that limit radiational cooling. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 54.4°F for the date. Trader consensus on the 45°F-or-below and 64°F-or-higher outcomes at equal 50% implied probability reflects model sensitivity to small changes in cloud thickness and wind direction, which could either enhance cooling or maintain mild conditions. Updated forecast runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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